SunSirs: Upstream Support Can Still Help PA6 Rise At The End Of The Third Quarter (7.1-9.30)

1.Price Trend

According to the data of SunSirs's bulk list, the market of PA6 in the third quarter of 2019 was generally volatile and strong, and most brand quotations rose in terms of results. As of September 30, the main offer price of Zhongzhu 2.75-2.85 was about RMB 14566.67 yuan / ton, up nearly 5.56% from the beginning of the quarter.

2.Cause analysis

In terms of upstream caprolactam liquid, the price at the beginning of the quarter was stable and rising. The market spot transaction price range was RMB 11500-12400 yuan / ton, with a narrow fluctuation at the beginning of the quarter. And caprolactam plant parking maintenance device more, the market spot supply is tight. In the aspect of downstream polymerization, with the restart of some maintenance units in Fujian, the overall start-up of polymerization increased slightly, the demand for caprolactam was slightly better, and the supply and demand were supported by the market; in August, the start-up rate of caprolactam liquid in the upstream of PA66 increased, the spot supply in the market improved, and the support for the supply and demand was weakened. At the beginning of the first quarter, the market of lactam liquid softened and weakened, and the focus of spot transactions of caprolactam liquid in East China fell. The upstream product cyclohexanone was adjusted by shock, and the cost support was weakened. The downstream slice Market is light, the polymerization plant is hard to make profits, and the enthusiasm of raw material procurement is not high. In the middle of the quarter, the spot supply balance was achieved, the profit space of the factory was narrowed, the price of the merchants was relatively high, and the caprolactam market was in a stalemate; by September, the trend returned to a strong performance, the low price spot was gradually reduced, and the market was up and down. In addition, the sharp shock of international crude oil has affected the linkage rise of pure benzene at the cost end, and the producers and traders are reluctant to sell at low prices. The downstream inquiry atmosphere has improved, and the enthusiasm of raw material procurement in slicing market has improved in the middle of the year affected by the "double festival" stock preparation. The stock preparation is basically completed near the end of September, and the demand returns to stable. In this quarter, caprolactam may be in stable operation temporarily. Caprolactam has certain support for PA6 cost. In the first half of the quarter, due to the abundant spot supply of PA6, the weak demand in the downstream caused the weak fluctuation of spot price. At the end of the quarter, under the influence of the "golden nine" traditional peak season, the stock demand improved. However, the supply of PA6 in domestic factories has a trend of expansion. After the price of merchants has been increased, the price has been recovered and stabilized. Domestic buyers and sellers hold a cautious attitude and wait-and-see operation is cautious.

3.Future Market Forecast

SunSirs analysts believe that: in the third quarter, the domestic PA6 market was adjusted by shocks. At the end of the quarter, it was boosted by the hot stock in the traditional peak season, increasing demand and price exploration. The upstream caprolactam has certain support for the cost end of PA6 in this quarter. At present, the spot supply of PA6 in China has an expanding trend, and the down stream stock up before the festival has brought a staged peak season. At present, the demand has turned to flat. It is expected that PA6 will continue to be sorted out in the near future.

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