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SunSirs: Liquid Ammonia Manufacturers Eased Inventory Pressure and Trialed to Drive up Prices

October 28 2020 15:58:46     SunSirs (John)

Since this week, the domestic liquid ammonia market has risen slightly, the price of liquid ammonia in Hebei has risen slightly, and the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong has also risen. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the mainstream market price in Shandong is 3,000-3,100 RMB/ton. The main reason is that the inventory pressure of manufacturers has eased, the urea market has improved.

The price of liquid ammonia in Shandong increased slightly in the first two trading days this week. The supply of large factories was stable, the equipment was operating normally, and the inventory pressure was eased. Affected by the recent rise in domestic market, some manufacturers switched to urea production, and the amount of ammonia was controlled. In addition, due to production restrictions in some areas such as Shanxi, the operating rate has fallen, and supply has brought certain support. From the downstream point of view, the current agricultural fertilizer is off-season, and the terminal is not picking up the goods. There are many places with prices and no market, which may make it difficult to maintain the rising trend of liquid ammonia.

In other regions, prices rose steadily. Hebei followed closely the price trend in Shandong. Hebei also saw a slight increase on Tuesday and Wednesday for two consecutive days, both at 50-80 RMB/ton. At present, a plant in Cangzhou in Hebei still produces a small amount of liquid ammonia, so the pressure is not great. This is also an important factor to balance the supply and demand in the region. The amount of liquid ammonia in the region basically maintains a balance between supply and demand. The current price is 3,100-3,200 RMB/ton.

Looking at the market outlook, SunSirs believes that the recent increase in liquid ammonia prices is a phased one, and the magnitude is not large. The short-term positive impact of supply, especially urea due to the strengthening of winter storage, also squeezed part of the ammonia. However, from the terminal point of view, the current downstream fertilizer is off-season, so liquid ammonia also has a certain risk of callback. It is expected that the market will not show much in the near future.

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