Ruida Futures: Shanghai Aluminum Surging and Falling, Strong Trade Data

Internal and external trends: On Wednesday, LME aluminum oscillated. As of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month LME aluminum price was $1,853.5/ton, a daily increase of 0.03%. Shanghai Aluminum's main 2011 contract rose and fell, the highest within the day was 14,750 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,575 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous trading day’s closing; the trading volume was 95766 lots, a daily decrease of 3576 lots; positions were 126079 Hands, an increase of 4243 hands. Basis is 330 yuan/ton; Shanghai Aluminum's monthly price difference between 2011 and 2012 is 200 yuan/ton.

Market focus: (1) The draft of the EU summit communiqué revealed that European leaders will confirm that the negotiations between the UK and the EU on Brexit have not made progress. (2) According to customs statistics, in the first three quarters, China’s total import and export value of goods trade was RMB 23.12 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%; of which exports were RMB 12.71 trillion, an increase of 1.8%; imports were RMB 10.41 trillion, a decrease of 0.6%. . (3) The EU will impose a tariff of 30.4% to 48% on aluminum profiles imported from China from Wednesday, and it will continue to be used until the expected end of the investigation in April.

Spot analysis: On October 14th, SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 14,960-15,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 14,980 yuan/ton, and a daily increase of 10 yuan/ton. Changjiang Nonferrous Metals reported that holders are actively shipping, large buyers are generally motivated to receive goods, and there are few downstream receiving goods, and transactions continue to be flat.

Warehouse receipts inventory: On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 125,371 tons, a daily reduction of 451 tons; on October 13, LME aluminum inventory was 1,412,600 tons, a daily reduction of 9,875 tons.

Main positions: Shanghai Aluminum's main 2011 contract top 20 long positions 72,569 hands, a daily increase of 2,238 hands, short positions 91,284 hands, a daily increase of 1939 hands, a net short position of 18,715 hands, a daily decrease of 299 hands, both long and short positions increased, and headroom decreased.

Market research and judgment: On October 14th, Shanghai Aluminum's main force in 2011 rose and fell. China's September import and export data showed strong performance, showing that China's economy has maintained a momentum of recovery, domestic market demand has performed well, and overseas demand has also improved. Recently, Lun's aluminum inventory has continued to deplete, forming a strong support for aluminum prices. However, the IMF warned that despite a significant recovery this year, the financial market will still undergo a sharp adjustment, causing the U.S. index to rebound from a low level; the new domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is gradually being released, and high profits also stimulate the release of idle capacity and limit aluminum prices. On the action can. Technically, Shanghai Aluminum's main 2011 contract holdings increase on the line to explore, the bullish atmosphere is still dominant, and short-term high shocks are expected. In terms of operation, it is recommended to operate in the vicinity of 14,550-14,750 yuan/ton, with a stop loss of 80 yuan/ton each.

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