SunSirs: After the National Day, China's Soybean Meal and Oil Ushered in a Good Start

According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, since September, the soybean meal and oil prices have ushered in a wave of oscillating prices. Soybean meal ushered in a slight correction after rising 5 points. Soybean oil and palm oil rose sharply, and so did the correction. Soybean oil and palm oil both rose by more than 10 points, and then staged a high dive, falling by more than 5 points.

After the National Day, the external market was boosted. On October 9th, the soybean market rose sharply in the morning, and soybean oil and palm oil soared. Even soybean meal closed at RMB 3,262/ton, up RMB 185/ton. Soybean oil closed at 7,036 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan/ton; even palm oil closed at 6,082 yuan/ton, up 318 yuan/ton.

The futures market was boosted. As of October 10, the spot price of soybean meal exceeded the 3,300 yuan mark, an increase of more than 5%. Soybean oil spot rose to around 7,400 yuan/ton, an increase of over 4%; palm oil spot rose to around 6,700 yuan/ton, an increase of over 6%.

Bullish support post-holiday soybean meal rose sharply

Since September, the US soybean weather theme has reappeared. Soybean meal has shown an upward trend. Due to loose market supply, it has shown a diving market. Before the holiday, the feed factory started stocking market, and soybean meal is still rising. During the National Day, the news was that the soybean planting plan in Brazil was delayed, the weather theme of soybeans in South America hit, the supply was expected to be tight, and the market was bullish. After the National Day, the spot market for soybean meal futures showed a surge, with an average market price of RMB 3,320/ton, an increase of 10.67% from the beginning of September.

External disk boosts soybean oil palm oil soaring for two days after the holiday

Beginning in September, the pre-holiday stocking market has been boosted, and soy oil palm oil has experienced a sharp rise, with an increase of more than 10 points. Before the festival, the stocking market ended, and the negative pressure was suppressed. Soybean oil palm oil showed a high dive. During the National Day, due to the impact of the La Nina weather, concerns about the reduction in Malay palm oil production are expected to increase, and the export of Malay palm oil is expected to increase in October. Supported by bullish conditions, palm oil continued to rise in the Malaysian market. As for soybean oil, the planting of South American soybeans was delayed, while US soybeans performed strongly.

Opening after the holiday, even soybean oil palm oil soared, and the spot price rose. On October 10, the palm oil and soybean oil spot continued to soar, with an increase of 150-200 yuan/ton. The average price of soybean oil in the spot market was 7,423 yuan/ton, a two-day increase, or 4.65%, which was 9.7% higher than the price in early September. The average price of palm oil in the spot market was 6,722 yuan/ton, a two-day increase, or 6.5%, which was 6.63% higher than the price in early September.

SunSirs agricultural products analysts believe that the current surge in soybean meal and soybean oil palm oil prices is mainly due to a wave of supplementary gains boosted by external markets during the National Day, which may not be sustainable. The market outlook is expected to usher in a wave of callbacks. The fourth quarter is the peak season for oil and fat consumption. Soy oil palm oil will still be the main focus. Soybean meal destocking is still expected to rise.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.