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SunSirs: US Crude Oil Inventory drops sharply & Hurricane damages crude oil production, Oil price rises sharply

September 18 2020 09:26:24     SunSirs (Selena)

On September 16, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market rose sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at $40.16/ barrel, up $1.88 or 4.90%. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, the main contract settlement price to $42.22/ barrel, up $1.69 or 4.16%. The sharp rise in oil prices was mainly due to the sharp decline in US crude oil and gasoline stocks, and the superposition of Hurricane "Sally" forced a large number of US oil production to be blocked.

According to a report released by EIA on Wednesday, U.S. crude oil inventories fell 4.4 million barrels last week, to 496 million barrels, the lowest level since April. In the previous survey, analysts forecast an increase of 1.3 million barrels. As soon as the data was released, it was quite different from previous analysts' forecasts, and the oil market jumped sharply in response to the news. Gasoline inventory also showed significant positive performance. According to EIA, the US gasoline inventory decreased by 400,000 barrels, more than twice as much as analysts expected, and the capacity utilization rate was estimated to increase by 4 percentage points.

The reason for the sharp drop in inventories is that the crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico region has fallen sharply due to Hurricane Sally. As the hurricane approaches the US Gulf Coast, more than 25% of the US offshore oil and gas production is damaged, and the export ports are also closed.

At the same time, relevant news shows that the implementation rate of the OPEC oil production alliance in August may be 101%, and the scale of the reduction is generally in line with market expectations. Moreover, the OPEC oil Ministerial Committee met on Thursday to review the supply agreement, and the signals released during the period are relatively strong. Although the oil price has fallen before, it was unlikely to further reduce production, which may lead to repeated oil prices in the later period.

SunSirs believes that the rebound in oil prices is mainly due to the force majeure of Hurricane "Sally". At present, the fundamentals are still not optimistic, and the number of new cases is still high. In order to stimulate the economy, the relaxation of blockade measures in various countries has made it more difficult to prevent the epidemic in the later stage. Moreover, the possibility of fighting back the epidemic situation in winter is increasing, and the fuel demand will continue to be under pressure in the medium and long term, and oil prices are not expected to continue to rise.

 

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