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SunSirs: Refined Oil Declined Slightly this Week (10.08-10.12)

October 12 2019 14:23:45     SunSirs (Selena)
  1. Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, gasoline and diesel prices fell slightly this week. Domestic gasoline prices were 6,707 RMB/ton, down 0.98% from last week's gasoline prices; domestic diesel prices were 6,379 RMB/ton, down 0.70% from last week's diesel prices.

  1. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week, the international crude oil market as a whole is weak and volatile. A new round of price adjustment of finished products is expected to be reduced about 200 RMB/ton. The refined oil market is down, the replenishment operation is not active, and the market price has slightly declined.

Industry chain: This week's bad news in the international crude oil market continued, and crude oil prices fell as a whole. Saudi official news said the country's crude oil production had returned to pre-attack levels; the International Energy Agency downgraded its forecast for global oil demand growth for 2019 and 2020; the US EIA inventory data was once again negative, crude oil inventories and production showed a rise; and the weak global economic performance limited the rise in international oil prices.

Market: During the National holidays, due to the sustained negative effect of crude oil news, the overall market turnover is general. At 24pm on October 8th, the price adjustment of domestic refined oil was stranded, and a new round of price adjustment was expected to be reduced by 200 RMB/ton. The replenishment operation of downstream traders is not very active, resulting in no obvious replenishment market after the holidays. After the National holidays, the shipment mentality of the manufacturers is positive, and the quotation of gasoline and diesel oil is strengthened. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, in August 2019, China's imports of refined oil rose by 30.61%, while exports fell by 21.31%. Market resources are abundant. Domestic oil product market prices fell slightly this week.

  1. Market Forecast

SunSirs’ analyst believes that the international crude oil market is still not optimistic next week, and the probability will be weak and volatile. The gasoline market is not well supported in substance, and the price of component raw materials is mainly falling. For diesel, the start-up rate of industrial, mining and infrastructure projects has returned to normal, and the diesel market has demand support. The price of domestic refined oil market is expected to decline steadily next week.


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