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SunSirs: China Thermal Coal was rrunning steadily Last Week (August 17-21)

August 25 2020 10:52:53     SunSirs (Selena)

According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price of thermal coal was temporarily stable last week. From August 17 to August 21, the average port price of steam coal remained at 559.5 RMB/ ton, a decrease of 4.24% compared with the same period last year. On August 23, the commodity index of steam coal was 67.41, unchanged with the previous day, down 34.56% from the highest point of 103.01 in the cycle (November 15, 2011), and 50.81% higher than the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Analysis of Influencing Factors

In terms of production areas, some coal mines in Northern Shaanxi have stopped production for maintenance, and the actual production capacity has declined and the supply is tight, but the overall shipment is relatively smooth, and the coal price generally rises by 5-10 RMB; the coal management tickets in Inner Mongolia are strictly controlled, and the long-term cooperative shipping is basically maintained, and the coal price is weak and stable; the production and sales in northern Shanxi are relatively normal, and the coal price is firm.

In terms of downstream power plants, the mainstream closing price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal in the port is about 556-561 RMB/ ton. The high temperature weather in China continues, the daily coal consumption of power plants is increasing day by day, and the inventory has no obvious change, and most of them are long-term cooperative replenishment warehouses. As of August 21, Zhejiang power had 4.43 million tons of inventories, 150,000 tons of daily consumption, and 29.53 days of usable days.

Data released by the National Bureau of statistics on August 14 showed that the price of coal in the first ten days of August was mainly stable. The specific price changes of each coal type are as follows: anthracite (washing medium block, volatile content≤8%) price is 835 RMB/ ton, which is 5 RMB/ ton lower than the previous period, or 0.6% lower.

SunSirs analysts believe that, the supply of production areas is relatively tight, and the daily consumption of downstream power plants is increasing due to weather reasons. However, due to the coal price inventory of Changxie coal, the power plant needs to purchase thermal coal on demand. Datong Qinhuangdao line is back to traffic, the shipment volume is less than that of the previous days, the inventory of Beigang is still in the middle and high level, the seller has willingness to support the price, the terminal demand is general, and the transaction situation is relatively general. In a comprehensive view, the short-term thermal coal price in China may maintain a small consolidation trend; it depends on the specific demand of downstream market.

 

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