SunSirs: Increased Market Supply, Chinese PTA Prices are under Pressure

According to SunSirs price monitoring, the domestic PTA market has maintained a slight downward trend in the past week. As of August 20, the average market price was 3592 yuan/ton, down 1.22% from August 13 and 32.67% year-on-year. During the week, the PTA parking maintenance system entered the restart phase one after another, and there was a small increase on the supply side. Although terminal orders have recovered, the market's expectations for foreign trade have weakened and the demand side has insufficient support. In addition, the market still has certain worries about the demand for crude oil, so it shows a weak downward trend.

In terms of PTA equipment, Honggang Petrochemical 1.5 million tons and Ningbo Taihua 1.2 million tons restarted on August 17 and 20 respectively. Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 million tons load rebounded to around 90% on August 18. Yangzi Petrochemical 650,000 tons plans to restart on August 21. The current operating rate has been raised to around 87%, and the expected increase in supply is negative for the market mentality.

At the same time, the inventory is still at a high level. As the current social inventory is still at nearly 4 million tons, and the equipment has been restarted one after another, the duration of destocking is limited, and the PTA social inventory pressure is still relatively high. As of August 14, the domestic PTA social inventory was 3.92 million tons, a decrease of 65,000 tons from the previous week, but a substantial increase of 2.45 million tons from the same period in 2019.

The downstream polyester plant of Tongkun Heng over 300,000 tons was put into use on Tuesday, and the start-up load increased to more than 87%. Shaoxing Jiabao’s 400,000 tons of polyester plant is expected to restart next week, and Hengyi Haining’s new material set of 250,000 The ton of polyester plant is expected to be put into operation at the end of the month. The remaining 50,000 tons of polyester staple fiber of Yizheng Chemical Fiber is planned to be put into production at the end of the month, and the 600,000 tons of bottle flakes are planned to be restarted at the end of the month. Overall, the start of polyester production will be further improved. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated in 33-40 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 11-18 days, FDY stock is around 22-32 days, and DTY stock is around 30-40 days. The market price of polyester filament yarn was stable and weak this week. Among them, the prices of polyester POY150D/48F from mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are at 5,050-5,450 yuan/ton. At a low level year-on-year. Recently, various kinds of knitted fabrics in the traditional market of China Textile City have been listed in relatively large varieties, but the spot market is still relatively limited. Among them, the autumn knitted sweater fabrics are made of polyester bright FDY, semi-gloss FDY, DTY, and POY as the main raw materials. Orders for the layout of small jacquard strips and small diamond-shaped double-sided sweater cloth are increased.

It is believed that the negative demand on the demand side is always the biggest resistance to suppress the rise of oil prices. The market still has certain concerns about the demand for crude oil, and oil prices will consolidate at a high level. PTA's own equipment restarts and heats up, the supply is expected to be loose, and the inventory remains high. However, with the restart of the polyester plant, terminal orders have also improved, and the demand side will improve. Therefore, on the whole, it is expected that PTA prices will continue to fall within a narrow range next week.

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