SunSirs: The ECH Market Is Mainly Stable and the Atmosphere Is Light

Price trend

The recent ECH market is mainly stable. According to data from SunSirs’ bulk list, as of August 19, the average price of ECH companies was 10,266.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as at the beginning of the week and increased by 3.01% compared with July 19.

Analysis review

At the beginning of the week, the average price of ECH companies was 10,266.67 RMB/ton, and the price of raw material propylene was high, and the superimposed supply was tightly supported. Holders offered high prices, and downstream operations were cautious, and the atmosphere for real offers in the market was light. On the 19th, the market price of raw material propylene rose slightly, but the enthusiasm for downstream inquiries was not high. Small orders just needed to be replenished mainly. Holders mostly made stable offers, and the market continued to wait and see.

On August 19, the ECH commodity index was 72.50, which was the same as previous day. It was 45.78% lower than the highest point in the cycle of 133.71 points (2019-10-29), and 54.75% higher than the lowest point of 46.85 points on September 7, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present)

Upstream propylene, on August 19, the market price of propylene in Shandong increased slightly. According to the price chart of the business agency, the price of propylene has fluctuated cyclically recently, and the price range of recent shocks has broken through. At the beginning of August, the price was at a high level in the range. Since the weekend, the price has risen and fallen slightly, and has remained largely unchanged. On the 4th, the prices of individual companies declined slightly, and the price was stable on the 5th. From the 6th to the 10th, the first round of this month's breakthrough range began to rise. Prices started to remain stable on the 11th. The prices of individual companies declined on the 14th. Prices continued to decline on weekends. The prices continued to stabilize on the 17th and began to rise partially on the 18th. There were still more than half of the company's prices that had not moved. The current market transaction is between 6,950 and 7,250 RMB/ton, and the mainstream price is around 6,950 RMB/ton. Propylene manufacturers shipped smoothly, with no pressure on inventory.

On August 19, downstream epoxy resins were operating at high prices. Holders were not pressured to sell goods, and they offered high prices, and downstream purchases were mainly on demand.

Market outlook

The ECH analyst of SunSirs believes that the current raw material propylene price has risen slightly, and the cost is supported to a certain extent. There is no inventory pressure on the spot on the spot, but the downstream market is not motivated, the buying atmosphere is quiet, and the market mentality is more cautious and wait and see. In the short term, the ECH market may be stalemate to sort out the operation, and more need to pay attention to market news guidance.

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