SunSirs: China Wood Pulp Price Rises periodically, the Future Market is under Pressure

According to SunSirs data, last week, the spot price of wood pulp rose again, with an increase rate of about 50 RMB/ ton. On August 14, the average price of softwood pulp in Shandong was 4,432.5 RMB/ ton, which was increased by 40 RMB/ ton or 0.91% compared with the average price of 4,392.5 RMB/ ton at the beginning of August. On August 14, the average market price of hardwood pulp in Shandong was 3,587.5 RMB/ ton, which was increased by 10 RMB/ ton compared with the average price of 3,577.5 RMB/ ton (on August 1) in Shandong Province, up 0.28%.

According to the observation of market changes, the price of wood pulp has been stable in the first half of August, until the price began to rise last week, and the rise of spot wood pulp price was mainly due to the recent rise of pulp futures. In addition, the recent increase in the price of pulp outside the plate made the domestic spot price rise. At the end of August, the wood pulp market may have a slightly positive momentum. The demand for cultural paper, white cardboard and household paper may continue to follow up, and the centralized effect of shopping festivals and holidays in the fourth quarter will help to relieve the inventory pressure.

However, at present, the domestic supply of wood pulp to Hong Kong is still high, and the willingness of foreign pulp mills to stop production and limit production is low. Therefore, it is difficult for the supply and demand of wood pulp to change fundamentally and the price of wood pulp is difficult to continue to rise. At present, the reference quotation range of softwood pulp is: Yinxing 4,370-4,500 RMB/ ton, and the price range of hardwood pulp is 3,550-3,650 RMB/ ton.

In terms of futures, on August 14, the opening price of SP2009 main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange was 4,488 RMB/ ton, and yesterday's settlement price was 4,466 RMB/ ton, with 126,44 transactions and 309,16 positions.

Wood pulp analysts of SunSirs believe that although the wood pulp price has risen slightly, the imbalance between supply and demand still exists, and the downstream market is basically in the demand of replenishment. As the contract delivery in September is approaching, it is expected that the price of China wood pulp futures and spot will continue to be mainly shock consolidation in the short term.

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