SunSirs: After China's Soybean Meal Returns to High Levels, It Has Continued to Pull back

According to SunSirs data monitoring: the second quarter of 2020 continued to fall, falling for three consecutive months, a drop of more than 16%. Soybean meal ushered in a turning point in July, the price bottomed out and returned to a high level. The average price of soybean meal for the entire July market rose to 3,065 yuan/ton, an increase of more than 6%. At the end of July, soybean meal has begun to show a trend of correction. In early August, the bullish factors were exhausted, and the soybean meal market still showed a downward trend. As of the 5th, the average soybean meal market price was 3,017 yuan/ton, which was 5.69% higher than that in early July.

From January to July 2020, soybean meal rose for 3 months and fell for 4 months. The biggest increase in March was 15.12%, and the biggest drop in April was 11.12%. The surge in soybean meal in March was mainly due to increased logistics costs, low operating rate of soybean oil plants and tight supply. The continuous decline in the second quarter was due to continued high soybean meal stocks and weak price increases. In July, the expected price of soybean meal ushered in a rise. Due to the huge amount of imported soybeans arriving in Hong Kong, the foundation of the soybean meal's surge was not strong, and the price of soybean meal ushered in a correction at the end of the month. In early August, soybean meal was still facing the stage of long-short game.

After the turning point, soybean meal runs weakly

The rise in soybean meal prices in July was mainly due to the bullish USDA report, the continued recovery of production capacity in the terminal aquaculture industry, and the increase in rigid demand for feed. However, it cannot be ignored that the raw material imported soybeans are still at a high level. The number of imported soybeans in June still exceeded 11 million tons, reaching 11.16 million tons. From January to June, my country imported 45.03 million tons of soybeans, an increase of 18% year-on-year. The quantity of imported soybeans has increased significantly, the supply of soybean meal is loose, and stocks are high. The bullish factor has gradually been accepted by the market. From the end of July to the beginning of August, soybean meal clearly ushered in a correction, and the price fell by more than 1%.

SunSirs agricultural products analysts believe that the July soybean meal price rise has passed, and the growth momentum of soybean meal is obviously insufficient in August. There is still room for soybean meal to rise, and it may usher in another wave of gains.

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