SunSirs: CPL Dropped Sharply Due to Bearish in July

Price trend

According to data from SunSirs’ bulk list, domestic CPL prices have fallen sharply this month. The average ex-factory price of CPL was 10,400 RMB/ton on July 1, and the average ex-factory price of CPL was 9,566 RMB/ton on July 31, a drop of 8.01%. The highest price in the month is 10,400 RMB/ton, and the lowest price in the month is 9,533 RMB/ton.

On July 31, the CPL commodity index was 48.12, the same as previous day, a decrease of 51.88% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.00 (2017-03-02), and an increase of 22.13% from the lowest point of 39.40 on April 7, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2017-03-01 to present)

Analysis review

In early and mid-July, due to the continuous decline in raw material prices and limited cost support, CPL fell. The supply was sufficient, the downstream demand was poor, and the  overall market was weakness. The price of raw materials rose in late July, and the cost support was strong. However, the downstream demand was weak, and the overall pressure was still there. As of July 31, Shandong Luxi Chemical's CPL liquid price was 9,000 RMB/ton in cash, and the factory has a production capacity of 300,000 tons/year. The actual transaction can be discussed. Nanjing Dongfang’s CPL liquid price was 10,000 RMB/ton, the 400,000 tons/year plant was operating normally, and the CPL plant was operating normally. the price of Baling Hengyi CPL liquid was 9,800 RMB/ton, and the 450,000 tons/year plant was in normal operation and delivered by acceptance. Baling Petrochemical’s CPL liquid price was 9,800 RMB/ton, and the 300,000 tons/year plant was in normal operation and delivered by acceptance.

In July, the listing price of raw material pure benzene was 2,950-3,400 RMB/ton, and the price increased by 210 RMB/ton this month, which was a 6.65% increase this month.

In the first ten days of July and mid-July, pure benzene fluctuated in intervals, and the price of pure benzene rose sharply in the latter ten days. In the first ten days of July and mid-July, pure benzene fluctuated in intervals, and the price of pure benzene rose sharply in the latter ten days. Sinopec lowered the listing price of pure benzene at the beginning of this month and raised the listing price three times in the second half of this month, raising a total of 50 RMB/ton to 3,350 RMB/ton. At the beginning of July, the weak market situation in June continued, downstream demand was not followed up, and port inventory remained high; coupled with the unknown public health incident, the market spot transactions were light and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. In late July, the prices of external disks rebounded significantly, and companies filled the gaps at the end of the month, and the pressure of delivery was quickly released, and prices rose sharply.

Market outlook

The CPL analyst of SunSirs believes that the price of raw material pure benzene has continued to rise recently, and the cost is favorable and the support is strong, and the downside is limited. The poor performance of downstream demand shows no trend of improvement and will continue to be under pressure in the short term. The CPL market is expected to rise steadily after weak consolidation in August.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.