SunSirs: Domestic Naphtha Market Rose Sharply in September

1. Price Data

According to the latest monitoring data of SunSirs, as of September 30, the average price of domestic mainstream refinery naphtha was 6,197.50 RMB/ton, up 1.97% from 6,077.50 RMB/ton at the beginning of thE month, and the price of domestic refinery naphtha rose sharply in September.

On September 30, the naphtha commodity index was 76.49, unchanged from the previous day, down 25.46% from the peak of 102.62 points in the cycle (2012-09-24), and up 81.08% from the low of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-01 to date)

2. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Naphtha prices rose sharply in September, naphtha prices fluctuated slightly in early September, international crude oil rose sharply in mid-September due to the Saudi Arabian incident, naphtha prices rose, and naphtha prices continued to fluctuate at a high level in late September. At present, the mainstream price of hydronaphtha is about 6,200 RMB/ton. On September 27, the cracking differential of Asian naphtha continued to raise, with Asian naphtha rising $7.00 per ton, $53.68 higher than Brent crude oil. Asian gasoline cracking spread was $6.89 a barrel, up $0.65.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, the US WTI crude oil was $56.71/barrel at the beginning of the month, and $55.91/barrel at the end of the month, the monthly rise and fall was -1.41%; Brent crude oil was $61.08/barrel at the beginning of the month, it was $61.91/barrel at the end of the month, the monthly decline was 1.36%. In September, the crude oil market rose in panic because of the attack on Saudi oil equipment; since the attack, the situation has stabilized, Saudi Arabia has not reduced oil exports, and U.S. inventories have increased, and international oil prices have fallen sharply. Downstream: Some Sinopec refineries were scheduled for September, and some suppliers were actively stocking up. According to SunSirs, the domestic toluene market has risen 12.98% in September due to the events in Saudi Arabia and the low level of port inventory. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 6,400 RMB/ton; the xylene market has risen 15.27%, and the mainstream price in East China is about 6,850-6,900 RMB/ton. In September, the total spot of pure benzene was on the low side, and the port stock kept falling, which supported the high price of pure benzene. At present, the price of pure benzene is between 5,500-5,900 RMB/ton. On the PX market, the domestic ex-factory price of p-xylene was stable in September. At present, the price of PX is 6,600 RMB/ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there were eleven kinds of commodities rising annually in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in September 2019, of which four kinds of commodities had increased by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were methanol (15.85%), dimethyl ether (13.70%) and gasoline (6.36%). There were five kinds of commodities that had declined annually, two of which had declined by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products of the first three declines were liquefied natural gas (-6.05%), coke (-5.50%) and coking coal (-3.98%). The month's average rise and fall was 2.2%.

3. Market Forecast

SunSirs’ Energy analysts believe that due to the rapid recovery of Saudi crude oil production capacity, oil price recovery, pre-holiday transportation, environmental protection and production restrictions, the price of refined naphtha has recently declined, and there will be a replenishment phenomenon in the market after the holidays. It is expected that the price of refined naphtha will rise first and then fall in October, with an average price range of 5,900-6,300 RMB/ton.

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