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SunSirs: The Spot Lead Market Surged Last Week and then Fell back (July.13-17)

July 21 2020 08:38:36     SunSirs (Linda)

Last week, the lead market (July.13-17) fluctuated and declined. The average price in the domestic market was 15,437.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 14,987.5 yuan/ton at the weekend, representing a weekly drop of 2.91%.

The Lead Commodity Index on July 18 was 91.21, the same as on July 17, a decrease of 31.94% from the cycle high of 134.01 points (2016-11-29), and an increase of 22.22% from the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present).

In the futures market, the LME lead fell to a "v" trend this week. The overall dimension remained at $1,820-1,890/ton. At the beginning of the week, affected by the reduction in LME inventory, LME lead fluctuated and rose to a high of $1,886, which was once the highest level since the beginning of March. Later, with the rapid increase in inventory, market confidence was frustrated, and prices fell all the way. As of Friday, LME reported at $1,835/ton, a decrease of about 1%. The Shanghai lead market fell back this week due to the influence of London Metals. This week, it mainly fluctuated at 14,800-15,600 yuan/ton. During the period, it once stood at the highest level in nearly two years. Later, as market sentiment weakened, the Shanghai lead market fell back. On Friday, the Shanghai lead was reported at RMB 14,895/ton, a decrease of 0.96%.

The domestic spot market fell after rising due to the impact of the futures market. The price continued to decline after rising on Tuesday. As of Friday, the spot lead market price was around 14,900-15,050 yuan/ton, with an average price of 1,4975 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan from last week. /Ton, the weekly decline is 2.91%. Affected by high social inventories, the futures market has fallen at a high level and the spot market has also fallen sharply since Tuesday. Downstream manufacturers have a strong risk aversion, mostly on demand and a small amount of replenishment, and mostly long-term transactions with scarce transactions. Purchasing on-demand is the main focus, and the pre-stocks are mainly consumed. The market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment.

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 28th week of 2020 (7.13-7.17), there are 6 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that have increased month-on-month. The top 3 commodities are titanium concentrate (3.70%) and silicon metal. (0.94%), neodymium praseodymium alloy (0.81%). A total of 12 commodities fell month-on-month, and 1 commodity fell more than 5%, accounting for 4.5% of the number of monitored commodities in this sector; the top 3 products that fell were aluminum (-6.28%) and copper (-2.96%) , Lead (-2.91%). The average increase and decrease this week was -0.63%. The performance of base metals this week rose first and then declined. After experiencing a sharp rise at the beginning of the week, they turned to fall, reversing the gains. The continued fermentation of foreign epidemics hindered the process of economic recovery. Crude oil led the bulk commodity market to fall, and domestic A shares The market faced a sharp decline after the skyrocketing, and base metals gave up gains one after another. This week, the metal industry was mainly down.

SunSirs predicts that next week will focus on the lead-acid battery market consumption. The peak season will consume part of the current high lead inventory. It is expected that the spot lead market will continue to operate weakly next week. 

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