SunSirs: Benefit factors support, Soybean Meal Inflection Point Arrived as Scheduled

According to SunSirs data monitoring, in 2020, soybean meal entered the second quarter and began to stage a decline channel, falling for three consecutive months, a decline of more than 16%. Starting from July 1, the soybean meal has reached an inflection point with the supportive factors. The price bottomed out and rebounded for two consecutive days. As of July 2, the average price of the soybean meal market was 2,882 yuan/ton, and the price continued to rise for two days, the increase was 4.06%.

In January-March 2019, the decline was mainly due to a decline of more than 7% in February. It only rose in April with a rise of 1.95%. Soybean meal in May ushered in a big rise, which rose more than 17%. It fell weakly in June.

In 2020, soybean meal performed poorly in January, and began to rise in February, with an increase of 1.9%. In March, the price rose by more than 15%, close to the largest increase in soybean meal in 2019. It continued to fall from April to June. It fell by more than 11% in April, fell by nearly 5% in May, and fell by 0.81% in June. All of March’s gains were lost. Soybean meal fell more severely in the second quarter, which was also abnormal. .

Bearishly suppressed soybean meal fell in the second quarter

Soybean meal has been declining since April, and has been falling throughout the second quarter. At the end of May, it began to fall, but the rebound was weak. It continued to fall. It fell to June, and it also tried to rebound in June. There was still no improvement. The overall decline in the second quarter is 16.75%.

The main reason is that the amount of imported soybeans has increased successively. In April, imports of soybeans have reached 6.71 million tons, more than 2 million tons more than in March, and in May it reached 9.377 million tons, a record high. The start-up rate of soybean oil plants has increased, and the supply of soybean meal has been relaxed. From May, soybean meal inventories have risen significantly. In June, soybean meal inventories have exceeded 1 million tons, with a weekly increase of more than 15%. Multiple bearish crackdowns, soybean meal continued to decline in the second quarter.

Supportive factors strikes, soybean meal rises as expected in early July

On June 30, the USDA planting report lowered the US soybean planting area and quarterly inventory expectations. The report data is bullish, external disk futures have boosted, and the previous soybean meal has been declining. Market participants are more bullish on soybean meal. Even soybean meal is rising as scheduled. The market soared. Starting on July 1, even soybean meal rose for two consecutive days, the main contract on the 1st rose 70 yuan/ton, and on the 2nd rose 35 yuan/ton. The spot price of soybean meal rose more than 4% in two days. Soybean meal, which has fallen for three months in a row, finally ushered in an inflection point in early July, and the gains are expected.

SunSirs agricultural product analysts believe that because the current increase in soybean meal is driven by the positive data of the US soybean planting report, and the inventory is now at a high level, in the long run, the momentum of soybean meal continued to rise is still insufficient. The US soybeans are in the growing period. The theme of weather speculation cannot be ruled out. Soybean meal may still rise in July.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.