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SunSirs: Hydrogenated Benzene Market Fell 6.54% in June 2020

July 01 2020 14:59:58     SunSirs (John)

Price trend

The commodity index of hydrogenated benzene on June 29 was 37.53, unchanged with the former day, down 63.21% from 102.01 (2014-01-09), and 25.14% higher than 29.99, the lowest point on April 07, 2020. (Note: period refers to December 1, 2013 to now)

 

Analysis review

In June 2020, the hydrogenated benzene market fluctuated and entered a downward channel. The ex-factory price in North China was 3,566.67 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 3333.33 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decline of 6.54%. The hydrogenated benzene market stabilized after rising in the first half of this month, and entered the downward channel in the second half.

In June 2020, Sinopec raised the ex-factory price of pure benzene 2 times and lowered it 5 times in total, with a cumulative decrease of 250 RMB/ton. As of the end of the month, Sinopec North China pure benzene implemented 3,250 RMB/ton, down 250 RMB/ton from the previous month.

n the first half of the month, affected by the crude oil turbulence, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene twice by 200 RMB/ton. The external market of pure benzene rose significantly. On the 11th, the upstream crude benzene sharply raised a new bidding price of 200 RMB/ton, and the Shandong region implemented about 3,100 RMB/ton, which brought external benefits to the hydrogenated benzene market. The market price of hydrogenated benzene increased to the highest point in the month of about 3,675 RMB/ton. Afterwards, the upward momentum was insufficient and entered a stage of high consolidation. Although the crude oil trend rebounded in the middle of the month, the support for the downstream market was limited. The external market of pure benzene continued to decline, which had a greater impact on the domestic pure benzene market. From 15th, Sinopec North China took the lead in reducing the ex-factory price of pure benzene by 50 RMB/ton. Entering the downward channel, the negative factors surrounding hydrogenated benzene were frequent, and the fundamentals of the hydrogenated benzene market were under pressure.

Downstream styrene, phenol and other companies' operating rates declined this month. Among them, the aniline operating rate fell sharply, reaching about 40%. Overall, the downstream operating rate declined overall, and the demand for hydrogenated benzene was weak. The contradiction between the supply and demand of hydrogenated benzene began to highlight, and the negative demand side factors affected the market.

 

Market outlook

SunSirs believes that the hydrogen benzene market is still under pressure in the future market, and the crude oil prices fluctuate, causing a certain degree of market wait-and-see sentiment. If the new plant of hydrogenated benzene downstream enterprises starts as scheduled in the second half of the year, the demand for hydrogenated benzene will be improved and the inventory pressure will be relieved, which can provide some support to the market, but in the short term there are many negative fundamental factors, the market is in a weak consolidation trend. Under the cost pressure, the downward pressure on the hydrogenated benzene market is expected to be greater, and the future market still needs to focus on the changes in the inventory of crude benzene and pure benzene.

 

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