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SunSirs: Low Support Enhances, Fuel Oil or Continues Strong Vibration

June 22 2020 11:08:21     SunSirs (Selena)

Futures: fuel oil rose sharply on last Friday, closing at 1,735 (up 49), with a total reduction of more than 20,000 positions. OPEC extended production reduction measures, crude oil supply declined substantially, but the market became more worried about the second outbreak of COVID-19, and the market split after the rebound of oil price. The start-up of refineries in the United States and India is still at a low level. The demand for high sulfur fuel oil processing is poor. There is little premium between the inside and outside of refineries. The fuel oil fluctuates in a short-term or continuous strong way. Attention should be paid to international news, epidemic development and changes in market sentiment.

Strategy analysis: OPEC's production reduction agreement continues to strengthen the support of low oil price, but the contradiction between supply and demand still exists, the outbreak of COVID-19 may rise again, and the crude oil market is under pressure. Short term market differentiation, there is callback pressure, but the range is temporary or limited. Multiple outbreaks show signs of second recurrence and slow economic recovery brings medium-term risk of uncertainty. Although the worst stage of crude oil demand has passed, considering the current situation of the global epidemic and the possible adverse impact of Sino US friction on the oil price, crude oil still needs to recover for a long time. If the accumulated reservoir pressure picks up, the oil price has the risk of further exploration.

 

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