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SunSirs: Poor Demand, Chinese Cobalt Prices Ushered in Three Consecutive Declines

June 18 2020 08:25:20     SunSirs (Linda)

1. Trend analysis

According to SunSirs data monitoring, the market performance of cobalt in June was not good, the price of cobalt fluctuated and fell, and recently the price of cobalt has ushered in three consecutive declines. As of June 16, the price of cobalt was 252,500.00 yuan/ton, down from the average price of 255,666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 1.24%; after June 11, the price of cobalt fell for three consecutive times, and the price of cobalt on June 16 had a decrease of 1.62%. Cobalt market performance was not good in June, and the recent price of cobalt has ushered in three consecutive declines.

2. Mobile phone market

According to data from the China Information and Communications Technology Institute, in May 2020, the total domestic mobile phone market shipments were 33.759 million units, down 11.8% year-on-year; from January to May, the total domestic mobile phone market shipments totaled 124 million units, down 18.0% year-on-year. It can be seen from the data that mobile phone sales in 2020 fell sharply compared with the same period last year, and the demand for cobalt in the mobile phone market fell significantly. Although the mobile phone market rebounded in April, the market in May fell sharply, and mobile phone sales in May both fell in the same period. The poor sales in the mobile phone market is bad for the cobalt market, and the cobalt price is under great pressure.

According to data from the China Information and Communications Research Institute, in May 2020, the 15.643 million 5G mobile phone shipments in the domestic market accounted for 46.3% of the mobile phone shipments in the same period. From January to May, the cumulative 5G mobile phone shipments in the domestic market were 46.084 million. The proportion is 37.0%. 5G mobile phones are given high hopes by the market, and are expected to become new demand points in the market. 5G mobile phones also lived up to expectations for substantial growth in April and May. Sales in May fell month-on-month, but the market share of 5G mobile phones rose sharply, and the mobile phone market is expected to decline, but the strong performance of 5G mobile phones still has a certain positive stimulus to the cobalt market.

3. New energy vehicle market

According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in May 2020, 84,000 and 82,000 new energy vehicle production and sales were completed, up 3.5% and 12.2% month-on-month, down 25.8% and 23.5% year-on-year. From January to May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 295,000 and 289,000, down 39.7% and 38.7% year-on-year, respectively, and the decline was 5.1 percentage points and 4.7 percentage points narrower than that from January to April. Affected by the decline in subsidies, the production and sales of new energy vehicles fell sharply year-on-year. Although the production and sales of the domestic new energy vehicle market have rebounded from the previous month, the production and sales of the whole year of 2020 still fell sharply year-on-year, and the overall production and sales of the new energy vehicle market still declined , Not as good as the market expected, to the cobalt market is negative. However, with the recovery of the new energy vehicle market, the benefits for the cobalt market have been strengthened, and the new energy vehicle market has a greater benefit for the cobalt market.

6. International market cobalt price

LME market that the international cobalt price has recently fallen, which is bearish for the cobalt market, the cobalt market weakens, and bearish for the domestic cobalt market.

7. Cobalt inventory in Wuxi market

Since the end of May, the cobalt city's inventory has increased significantly, and the supply of cobalt city is sufficient. With the international cobalt mines coming to port in June, the cobalt market may reproduce the oversupply problem. The price is bad.

8. Market summary

SunSirs data analysts believe that the recent demand for the cobalt market is not good, and sales of mobile phones and new energy vehicles have declined significantly in May. The demand for the cobalt market has declined significantly, triggering three consecutive declines in cobalt prices. But in the long run, although the production and sales of new energy vehicles have fallen sharply, the overall market demand is slowly increasing, which is good for the future market of cobalt; the overall performance of the mobile phone market is not good, but the performance of 5G mobile phones is good, and there is still some good for the future market of cobalt. Cobalt stocks in the Wuxi market have increased significantly, which has a negative impact on the price of cobalt, and international cobalt mines that have been unable to reach the ports due to the COVID-19. Mining is restricted, the risk of oversupply in the cobalt market is relatively small, labor costs such as transportation have increased, cobalt costs have increased, and there is limited room for cobalt price decline. Taken together, the recent demand for cobalt market is not good, the market outlook for cobalt market is lacking momentum, and the market for cobalt market is far from rising; for the future market, the cobalt market is optimistic and stimulating, the market demand is still optimistic, and the future market for cobalt market still has room to rise; and Affected by the cost, there is little room for cobalt price decline, and the overall market outlook for the cobalt market is expected to be stable and stable.

Related listed companies: Huayou Cobalt (603799), Hanrui Cobalt (300618), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993).

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