SunSirs: Coke Rebounds after Probing, or Fluctuates under Pressure

Futures: Coke fell sharply on Tuesday, closing at 1,955.5 (down 2.5), with a total reduction of more than 10,000 positions and a slight increase in trading volume. At present, the blast furnace demand of steel plants is strong, and the coke inventory continues to drop; the coke enterprises in Shandong, Jiangsu and Anyang regions have limited production and de capacity policy fermentation, and the fifth round of price increase has been opened, and the futures follow the logic of increasing valuation and concussion. After a short-term exploration of the supporting area, it will rise again, or there will be great fluctuations under pressure. Pay attention to the changes in market supply and demand and policy expectations, and guard against capital washing.

Spot: Shandong coke rose 50 RMB/ ton in the fifth round from 0:00 on June 10. The spot prices of coke in Rizhao, Qingdao port and other places are strong: quasi first grade coke 1,850-1,900, first grade coke 1,950-2,000. Shandong's coal production and total coal consumption are planned to be reduced by 10%, and the market remains strong due to the influence of production restriction and capacity reduction policies of coke enterprises in Shandong, Jiangsu and Anyang. The overall inventory of coke enterprises in Shanxi Province is low and the shipment is smooth; the blast furnace operation rate of steel plants remains high and the demand is strong; the supply and demand pattern is tight, and the port inventory reduction supports the market price.

Strategy Analysis: COVID-19 is the main factor that affects the economic impact of the current financial and monetary easing and support. The restart of economy in Europe and the United States has boosted market demand expectations, and crude oil rebounded strongly. However, the epidemic situation in the United States and other places continued, and there are worries about expansion. We should strengthen macro-control at home and adopt strong and loose policies to stabilize economic growth. At present, the demand for coke continues to exceed expectations and the easing policy pushes up the expectation of spot price rise in the future. Futures follow the logic of rising volatility due to rising valuation, to prevent short-term correction.

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