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SunSirs: Both Supply and Demand Were Positive and the Market for Cyclohexanone Rose Steadily in May

June 03 2020 14:10:16     SunSirs (John)

Price trend

The domestic cyclohexanone market steadily increased in May. According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone producers was 5,320 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month, and the average domestic cyclohexanone producer price was 5,980 RMB/ton at the end of the month. This month's increase was 12.41%, a decrease of 30.74% from the same period last year.


Analysis review   

The cyclohexanone market rose steadily. From the cost side, the pure benzene market fluctuated within a narrow range, and the cost side formed a stable support. From the supply side, the construction of the cyclohexanone spot device was low during the month. Chongqing Huafeng restarted at the beginning of May. Shandong Haili spot was not exported from the end of April to mid-May. Luxi Chemicals’ spot sales decreased. At the end of May, the Jining Zhongyin cyclohexanone plant was restarted, and the price of phenol-cyclohexanone was upside down. The phenol-based cyclohexanone plant was shut down for maintenance under the influence of cost factors. In May, the factory spot inventory pressure was not large. In the downstream caprolactam market, the spot supply was tight and the profit was good. The continuous order of chemical fiber within the month has formed a good support for the demand of cyclohexanone. On the whole, the supply and demand in the month were good, and the market was showing a steady rise.

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene: The price of pure benzene in China showed an upward trend this month. During the month, due to heavy inventory pressures in the East China market, the spot price lifted first and then fell, but the far-month price was driven by crude oil, and prices rose and transactions were active.

Caprolactam: The caprolactam market rose rapidly in mid and early May, on the one hand, it was strongly supported by the cost side. On the other hand, it received support from tight supply. After May 1st, Tianchen Yaolong's restart time was slightly delayed, Orchid Science and Technology's restart time was delayed, and Jiangsu Haili Device failed to restart in May. Coupled with the early short-term failures and negative load concentration of Cangzhou Xuyang, Shenma, Sanning, Shi Refinery, Juhua, Yangmei, Shandong Haili and other devices, the polymerization plant started actively, resulting in a tight supply of caprolactam in the early stage, and the seller actively pulled rise.

Adipic acid: In May, the price trend of adipic acid continued the weakness of the previous month. The price went up and down, and the market fluctuated. According to the data of SunSirs, the price of adipic acid turned red in May, but the monthly decline was only 0.61%. Dealer quotations were mainly mixed, and most of the amplitude fluctuated in the range of 100-200 RMB/ton, as of May 29 The mainstream quotation of adipic acid in East China is generally 6,500-6,800 RMB/ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in May 2020, there were a total of 47 commodities rising in the chemical sector of the commodity price rise and fall list, of which 31 commodities rose more than 5%, accounting for 34.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector ; The top three commodities for the increase were ethylene (69.89%), chloroform (67.86%), and crude benzene (24.52%).There were 37 kinds of commodities that fell sequentially, and 16 kinds of commodities that fell more than 5%, accounting for 17.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; the top three products that fell were R134a (-15.67%) and potassium chloride (-15.14 %), propane (-11.97%). The average monthly increase or decrease was 3.66%.


Market outlook

In the future market, the short-term cost support is relatively stable, the profit of cyclohexanone from pure benzene is acceptable, the supply and demand of cyclohexanone are relatively balanced, and the factory inventory pressure is not large. Considering cost factors, the downstream chemical fiber procurement enthusiasm may be reduced, and the business agency cyclohexanone analysts expect cyclohexanone to run sideways in a short period of time. There is still uncertainty about the long-term demand for chemical fiber purchases, and it is still necessary to pay attention to raw material prices and chemical fiber demand in the long run.


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