SunSirs: Low Inventory, the Price of Refined Petroleum Coke Continued to Rise last Week (May 25-29)

The price of refined petroleum coke rose last week (5.25-5.29). According to the data of SunSirs, the average mainstream price of petroleum coke products of domestic refineries was 1,112.50 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the week and 1,127.75 RMB/ ton at the end of the week, up 15.25 RMB/ ton in the week and down 1.37% in the week.

On May 29, the petroleum coke commodity index was 87.71, up 0.38 points from the previous day, down 43.63% from 155.59 (January 25, 2018), the highest point in the cycle, and up 31.13% from 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: last week, the trading of refined petroleum coke was good, the price was rising, the inventory of refining enterprises was low, most of them had no inventory operation, and the downstream stock intention was strong.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, U.S. WTI crude oil was $33.25/ barrel at the beginning of last week, $33.71/ barrel at the end of the week, up or down 1.38%; Brent crude oil was $35.66/ barrel at the beginning of the week, $36.03/ barrel at the end of the week, up or down 1.04%. International crude oil prices fluctuated last week. Russia hoped to ease the oil production reduction from July, and the US crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased. Downstream: last week, the demand for calcined coke was good, the inventory was low, the purchase intention was clear, the delivery and investment of carbon enterprises were good, and the price of electrolytic aluminum continued to rise. According to the data of SunSirs, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot market as of May 29 was 13,476.67 RMB/ ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 21st week of 2020 (5.25-5.29), there were 11 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, with gasoline (4.41%), coke (3.10%) and naphtha (2.44%) as the top 3 commodities. There were four kinds of commodities with a month on month decline, among which the top 3 were DME (-4.33%), LPG (-3.62%) and LNG (-3.59%). Last week's average was 0.55%.

Market Forecast

Analysts of petroleum coke of SunSirs predict that the price of refined petroleum coke will be low in the short term, and the price may rise slightly, with the price range of 1,100-1,200 RMB/ ton.

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