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SunSirs: The Third Round of Price Hike, Coke or Shock under Pressure

May 28 2020 10:53:44     SunSirs (Selena)

Futures: Coke cut back on Wednesday 2009, closing 1,863 (down 11), with a total of more than 17,000 positions reduced and trading volume reduced. At present, the blast furnace operation rate is high, the demand is strong, and the coke inventory continues to drop; Xiaoyi production limit is tightened, and Shandong coal production is set, stimulating the spot price expectations. In the third round, the price of coke raised 50 RMB/ ton by multi coke enterprises. The long support of futures is still strong, the short selling pressure is increased, and the market position is reduced. In short term or under pressure, we should pay attention to the market supply and demand and the change of policy expectation, and prevent the change of capital concentration.

Spot: Recently, Xiaoyi environmental protection and production restriction have been tightened. Coke enterprises across the country have raised the coke price by 50 RMB/ ton in the third round, and NISCO will implement it. In Rizhao and Qingdao port, the spot price of coke is strong, and the cost of taking goods from the production area is increased: quasi first grade coke 1,800, first grade coke 1,900. During the two sessions, the coal mines in Heilongjiang and other places in Shanxi Province stopped production and limited production, and the total coal consumption plan in Shandong Province reduced by 10%, pushing up market price expectations. The overall inventory of Shanxi coking enterprises is low and the shipment is smooth. The blast furnace operation rate of the steel plant remains high, the demand is strong, and the port inventory reduction supports the market price.

Strategy analysis: COVID-19 is currently the main factor that affects the economic impact of the current financial and monetary easing and support. Europe and the United States began to restart the economy to boost market demand expectations, and crude oil rebounded strongly. However, there are still worries about the expansion of the epidemic in Russia and South America. We should strengthen macro-control at home and adopt strong and loose policies to stabilize economic growth. At present, the demand is much higher than expected and the easing policy pushes up the expectation of spot price rise. The futures follow the logic of recovery shock rise of valuation. The two sessions failed to raise the GDP target, resulting in increased high callback pressure.


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