SunSirs: The Policy is not as Good as Expected, Chinese Zinc Price Rise Loses Support

According to SunSirs data monitoring, last week, the zinc price rose first and then fell, the overall zinc price fell slightly, and the zinc market lost its upward support. As of May 25, the spot price of zinc was 16,800.00 yuan / ton, which was slightly lower than the price of zinc at 16,943.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, a decrease of 0.85%.

LME market zinc inventory

It can be seen from the table that the inventory of zinc ingots in the LME market rose sharply last week, and the inventory of the international zinc market has risen sharply. Since May, the international zinc market has resumed production. The supply of the international zinc market is expected to rise slowly, and the supply of the zinc market in the future market is expected to be sufficient.

The policy is not as good as expected

At 9 am on May 22, Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council made a government work report to the Third Session of the 13th NPC on behalf of the State Council. This year's government work report did not propose specific targets for annual economic growth. Moreover, the adjusted target in the government report also differs greatly from expectations. New investment in traditional infrastructure is limited, which is lower than market expectations. The increase in infrastructure projects fell short of expectations, the zinc market demand fell short of expectations, and the zinc market lacked momentum to rise.

Analytical Outlook

SunSirs analysts believe that since the end of March, Chinese zinc prices have slowly recovered, and downstream enterprises' demand for resumption of production is the main driving force for zinc prices. The positive is the main support for the upward momentum of the macroeconomic recovery. At the two meetings held last week, the government work report did not have clear economic growth targets. This aspect reflected the harsh economic environment. On the other hand, new infrastructure projects were not the first choice for macro-control. The lack of new infrastructure projects has seriously affected the zinc market's demand expectations, and the prospective zinc market's insufficient demand is expected to supply the expected increase. Generally speaking, the zinc market in the future market is well-supplied, but the policy is not as good as expected, resulting in insufficient demand expectations. The zinc price has lost its upward support. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate and adjust.

Related listed companies: Zhongjin Lingnan (000060), Chihong Zinc Germanium (600497).

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