SunSirs: Energy, Coke Beared High Pressure and Fluctruated

Futures: Coke rose on last Friday, closing at 1,776.5 (up 2), reducing more than 5,000 positions and reducing trading volume. In the near future, the steel plants continue to increase production and demand vigorously, the coke inventory continues to drop, the second round of coking plants in many places increases by 50, and the spot price rises. Shandong's total coal consumption is planned to reduce by 10%, pushing up the market's bullish expectation; futures bulls take advantage of the opportunity to pull up some of the positions after surging. Short term or high pressure shock, pay attention to market demand, external market and expected changes in the epidemic situation of COVID-19, and prevent fund concentration and abnormal changes.

Spot: in the past two days, the second round of coke price of coking plants around the country has increased by 50 RMB. The spot price of Rizhao and Qingdao port coke has continued to rise strongly, and the cost of taking goods from the production area has increased: quasi first-class coke 1,760, first-class coke 1,860. The total coal consumption plan of Shandong cut by 10%, pushing up market expectations. Shanxi Xiaoyi coke Enterprise Limited production, the supply and operating rate of other areas was stable and high, coke enterprise overall inventory is low, with smooth shipment. The blast furnace operation rate of steel plants continues to increase, the demand is strong, and the port inventory is reduced, pushing up the expectation of market price increase.

Strategy analysis: crude oil rebounded strongly, and the risk of callback still needs to be prevented. We should strengthen macro-control and adopt strong and loose policies to stabilize the economy. In the near future, steel mills continue to increase production, support the spot market in the peak season of demand, and enhance the support strength of the low price zone of futures with loose policies. Pessimistic expectations will increase the pressure on the spot market after the surge; futures may go out of the trend of wide fluctuation.

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