SunSirs: The Sixth Round of Price Reduction in China Coke Market has been Implemented (March 15-22)

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, from March 15 to March 22, 2024, the sixth round of price increase and decrease in the coke market in Shanxi region was implemented. As of March 22, the ex factory price of quasi first grade metallurgical coke was 1,821.67 RMB/ton, a decrease of 5.29%.

On the supply side, the coking coal market is operating weakly, and recent inspections in mining areas have become stricter. The overall operating rate is low, and the supply of coking coal is tight. In terms of demand, downstream coking enterprises have implemented six rounds of lifting and lowering prices, resulting in lower profits for coking enterprises and lower willingness to purchase raw material coking coal. As a result, they have replenished inventory according to demand. Recently, the operating rate of coking enterprises has significantly declined, and the demand for raw materials has correspondingly decreased, leading to insufficient market demand support. The market atmosphere is operating weakly.

The coke market is operating weakly. After the implementation of the sixth round of price reduction, the supply side has continued to increase the production restriction efforts of coke enterprises, and the comprehensive operating rate of coking enterprises continues to decline, currently around 65%. Although the recent decline in raw material coking coal prices has somewhat restored the profits of coking enterprises, most coking enterprises still suffer losses, and production restrictions are still significant. Affected by the weak market atmosphere, coking enterprises have low expectations of increasing production and will continue to maintain a low operating rate in the short term, resulting in tight supply of coke. In terms of demand, prices have recently stopped falling and rebounded, but the operating rate has not significantly increased. Steel mills continue to maintain production restrictions, and the demand for coke is low, so they need to replenish inventory as needed. Overall, the coke market is still in a weak trend, with coke companies and steel mills all losing money. Currently, coke steel has a strong gaming mentality. It is expected that the coke market will operate steadily, moderately, and weakly in the short term. In the future, the focus will be on the inventory situation of coke in various links and the profit of coke steel.

The coke market in Shandong Port is currently operating steadily, with a quasi first level outbound price of around 1,930-1,980 RMB/ton and a first level outbound price of 2,030-2,080 RMB/ton. After the sixth round of price reduction in the spot market, the port spot market has been weakly operating, with average intentions of traders to gather at the port, limited fluctuations in inventory between the two ports, and a cold trading atmosphere in the market.

Freight prices are a barometer of port mentality. Market sentiment is positive when freight prices rise, but weak when freight prices fall. Last week, the port inventory has been relatively stable, and the overall negotiation atmosphere at the port has been weak recently. The enthusiasm of traders to gather at the port has been low.

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