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SunSirs: In April 2020, the Hydrogenated Benzene Market Rose by 20.86%

May 07 2020 14:14:22     SunSirs (John)

Price trend

In April 2020, the hydrogenated benzene market fluctuated and rose. The ex-factory price in North China was 2,176.67 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month, and 3,283.33 RMB/ton at the end of the month, up 20.86% monthly.

On April 30, the hydrogenated benzene commodity index was 36.24, unchanged from the former day, 64.47% lower than 102.01 (2014-01-09), the highest point in the cycle, and 20.84% higher than 29.99, the lowest point on April 7, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-12-01 to now).


Analysis review   

Domestic market: This month, the hydrogenated benzene market followed the trend of pure benzene upward, and then the increase was reversed. In the first half of the month, the market of pure benzene rebounded rapidly, and the listed prices of various factories were raised continuously. The increase of refining prices in various regions was more significant, and the market's speculation on the bottom was high. Under the multiple positive influences, the pure benzene market rose sharply. The hydrogenated benzene market entered the consolidation phase in the middle of the month. The hydrogenated benzene market has been plagued by cost pressure since the end of 2019, and the operating rate has been declining. By April this year, the operating rate was only less than 40%. In the middle of April, some enterprises affected by the market consolidation resumed operation, and the operating rate rose to about 50%. On the 20th, crude oil fell, external disk prices fell sharply, pure benzene was well digested, domestic pure benzene prices weakened, and the hydrogenated benzene market also entered a downward channel. When there was no obvious improvement in downstream demand, the shipment situation was general. Although a slight local recovery appeared at the end of the month, the market had not rebounded significantly. By the end of the month, the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong still hovered around 3,000 RMB/ton.

Industrial chain: Crude oil: OPEC + member states reached a joint production cut agreement this month to support the oil market. However, crude oil inventories increased rapidly, while the storage capacity was greatly reduced, and WTI even fell into a negative value for the first time in history this month. Compared with March 31, the price of Brent oil in April rose by 1.995 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 11.29%; the price of WTI oil in April fell by 2.66 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 10.85%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent oil prices fell by 47.095 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 79.54%; WTI oil prices fell by 38.92 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 64.04%.

Pure Benzene: Pure benzene port stocks continued to accumulate this month, but the increase was reduced. After this month's Qingming Festival holiday, the pure benzene market was affected by crude oil and external market, bottom reading rebounded, and downstream purchasing was positive, with a rebound of more than 30%. The spot supply in Shandong was tight, and the price increase was more obvious. After two weeks of hoarding, the downstream procurement speed slowed down significantly. In the late ten days, crude oil plummeted and pure benzene began to decline.

Downstream products: the price of styrene in Shandong Province was 4,650 RMB/ton on April 1, and 5,100 RMB/ton on April 30, with a monthly increase of 9.68%. In the early stage, stimulated by favorable crude oil and supply and demand, styrene prices rose driven by rising sentiment, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market was good. In the later stage, the weak raw material surface and the restart of domestic styrene plant gradually increased, which made the situation of supply exceeding demand hard to change in a short time, and the price declined.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in April 2020, there were 39 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector of the rise and fall of bulk commodity prices list, including 26 kinds of commodities with an increase rate of more than 5%, accounting for 29.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities with an increase rate were acetone (77.02%), acrylic acid (21.76%) and hydrogenated benzene (20.86%). There were a total of 45 commodities that fell sequentially, and 21 commodities that fell more than 5%, accounting for 23.6% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top 3 products that fell were ethylene (-31.64%) and butadiene (-24.14 %), Hydrochloric acid (-22.37%). The average monthly increase or decrease was 0.37%.


Market outlook

Many parties have jointly promoted the production reduction agreement process, and it has also achieved certain results, but in the short term, it cannot offset the negative impact of the sharp contraction in demand, and the oil market cannot escape the situation of excess supply and demand. Short term crude oil prices are expected to remain low. Most of the lower reaches are in the stage of inventory digestion, and the trading atmosphere in the field is light, mainly waiting for the later crude oil and the trend of the outer market. It is predicted that the future trend of hydrogenated benzene will be weak.


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