SunSirs: Energy, Difficult to Raise Spot Price, the Coke Market is under Pressure

Futures: Coke2009 fell sharply last Tuesday, closing at 1,638.5 (down 63), adding more than 33,000 positions and increasing trading volume. There are signs of turning points in new cases of the global epidemic of COVID-19. Many countries have loose monetary policy to maintain economic stability, and crude oil demand has declined sharply. The apparent consumption of domestic building materials rebounded to a high level; the output still has room to increase, and black energy is of weak operation.

Spot: yesterday's coke market is temporarily stable operation, individual steel mills up 50. Quotation of metallurgical coke: Rizhao second grade 1,700, Tangshan second grade 1,650, Linfen first grade 1,550. Port inventory: Rizhao Port 137 (increase 2), Qingdao port 171 (increase 1). In terms of coke enterprises, the supply is stable, the operating rate remains high, the overall inventory is at a low level, some coke enterprises are in the state of no inventory, most coke enterprises in the main production area have no sales pressure, and the inventory continues to decline. In terms of steel plants, the downstream steel transactions have reached a higher level in the market, but the speed of lowering the steel storage near the off-season has been narrowed, individual demand for coke has increased, and the overall procurement is still based on demand. Port coke continues to accumulate, most traders do not offer, the mentality is weak, it is difficult to raise, comprehensive view of the short-term stable operation of the coke market.

Strategy analysis: at present, the government strengthens macro-control, loose policies release liquidity to stabilize the market, fully promotes resumption of work and production, and increases counter cyclical adjustment. COVID-19 spreads globally, many countries implemented monetary easing policies, the global stock market industrial products riots, OPEC production reduction agreement less than market expectations, and crude oil continued to be weaken. In the near future, the inventory of building materials and social inventory of downstream steel plants will reduce; the terminal demand will recover in an explosive manner, and futures and spots will fluctuate widely. Under the favorable influence of domestic and foreign easing policies, the demand for building materials in the second quarter may remain high, and the support of futures will be strengthened after they fall to the undervalued and low price areas.

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