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SunSirs: Energy, Coke Market Widely Shocked

April 17 2020 10:14:11     SunSirs (Selena)

Futures: Coke rebounded on Thursday, closing 1,717 (up 17), with a total of 14,000 positions reduced and trading volume reduced. In some overseas countries, new cases have turned around, global interest rate has been cut more to maintain stable economy, apparent consumption of finished materials has continued to rise and reached a new high over the years, black energy varieties have been surging, coke intraday funds have gradually reduced their positions, and the market has slightly increased. Coke may have wide fluctuation in short term, pay attention to plate linkage, capital sentiment and change of supply and demand rhythm.

Spot: today's coke market temporarily stable operation, rising has not yet landed. Quotation of metallurgical coke: Rizhao second grade 1,700, Tangshan second grade 1,650, Linfen first grade 1,550. Port inventory: Rizhao Port 135 (up 2), Qingdao port 169 (up 1). In terms of coke enterprises, the supply is stable, the operating rate is basically the same as that in the earlier stage, the willingness to hold up the price under the condition of low profit is enhanced, the inventory in the coke enterprises of the main production area continues to decline, and purchasing orders by traders in steel mills is gradually improved. In terms of steel plants, the blast furnace operating rate has been rising steadily, and the trading volume of downstream building materials has reached the normal level of the market. However, due to the poor profit of finished materials and the impact of inventory pressure, coke is still mainly purchased on demand as a whole. With the expected improvement in the future market, part of the demand for coke has increased, and the short-term stable operation of coke market is seen comprehensively.

Strategy analysis: at present, the government strengthens macro-control, loose policies release liquidity to stabilize the market, fully promotes resumption of work and production, and increases counter cyclical adjustment. COVID-19 spread globally, many countries implemented monetary easing policies, the global stock market industrial products riots, OPEC production reduction agreement less than market expectations, and crude oil continued to weaken. In the near future, the inventory of building materials and social inventory of downstream steel plants began to drop, the terminal demand recovered in an explosive manner, and the overall wide fluctuation of futures and spot goods. Under the favorable influence of domestic and foreign easing policies, the demand for building materials in the second quarter may remain high, and the support will be strengthened after the futures fall to the undervalued and low price areas.


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