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SunSirs: Cost support, Chinese Aluminum Price Returned to the Line of 12,000

April 17 2020 09:38:43     SunSirs (Linda)

Aluminum market trends

On April 16, the average price of domestic spot aluminum ingots was 1,2016.67 yuan / ton, and aluminum prices returned to the 12,000 front line.

According to SunSirs data, the average domestic aluminum ingot market price was 1,2016.67 yuan / ton as of April 16, compared with the average market price of 11,526.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (April 1), an increase of 4.25%.

Cost support

Since late March, there are about 6 domestic concentrated production reduction and maintenance companies (including plans), affecting the production capacity of 445,000 tons / year. Based on the current low aluminum ingot prices, some manufacturers have avoided production and maintenance by avoiding large losses through production suspension and maintenance; at the same time, some new willingness to launch production capacity has been reduced, and the time has been slightly delayed.

Although the price of upstream raw material alumina has moved down, the cost support of electrolytic aluminum prices remains strong.

Reduced unsalable inventory due to COVID19

Due to the continuous production characteristics of electrolytic aluminum, there is a cumulative inventory gap with the downstream this year. With the resumption of production and the recovery of upstream and downstream, transportation problems are solved, downstream aluminum deep processing enterprises have sufficient supply of aluminum water, aluminum profiles, finished products and other industries The orderly resumption of production and production continued, and the slow-moving inventory of aluminum ingots gradually decreased.

Aluminum enterprises flexibly adjust product structure

The decline in aluminum prices has a greater impact on aluminum companies. In the early stage, they increased sales and lowered their inventory, further lowering market prices; aluminum companies had to take various measures to reduce the procurement costs of raw and auxiliary materials. At the same time, some companies flexibly adjust the product structure. For example, Yunnan Aluminum has developed aluminum nose bridges suitable for N95 masks to help win the battle of COVID19 prevention and control.

Estimated market outloo

From the perspective of historical price trends, the current price level is not high and the cost support is strong. Demand in the second quarter is expected to be warmer. It is expected that the recent high probability of maintaining stability will be strong.

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