SunSirs: Wood Pulp Spot Price is Stable; Short-term Shocks are expected to Dominate

According to the data monitoring of SunSirs: Last week (9.16-9.20) wood pulp spot price is in a stable trend, the overall price does not fluctuate too much. On September 20, the average market price of coniferous pulp in Shandong was 4,590 RMB/ton, which was the same as that of the beginning of the week. On September 20, the average market price of broad-leaved pulp in Shandong was 3,987.5 RMB/ton, which was the same as that of the beginning of the week.

From the observation of market changes, the spot price fluctuation of wood pulp began to decrease gradually in September, and the market of wood pulp was basically in a small consolidation trend. As the downstream market demand has not been fully released, on-site transactions are still biased towards just demand. At the beginning of last week, pulp futures prices soared and fell to a low level. The next day, pulp futures prices went up, and then fell again at the weekend, which was a constant shock. At present, the demand for downstream paper products is expected to improve, and the price of paper industry has risen in an all-round way, including corrugated paper, box board paper, white cardboard, copperplate paper and other kinds of paper. However, wood pulp spot market is relatively cautious, the overall price is in a steady state, coupled with pulp after a long period of early decline, and spot speculative demand has significantly weakened. With the arrival of the National Holiday, the demand for all kinds of packaging increased, and the overall supply and demand of the paper industry market was basically stable, so the traders still held a wait-and-see attitude towards price increase.

On the futures side, the main contract of pulp futures sp2001 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened at 4,800 RMB/ton on September 20, and the reference settlement price was 4,760 RMB/ton. The day before, the settlement price was 4,824 RMB/ton, with 489,546 transactions and 345,272 positions.

SunSirs’ wood pulp analysts believe that the domestic pulp port inventory is still at a high level, de-inventory is still the main task of the spot market, so spot prices do not fluctuate significantly, traders mainly ship goods. With the current price increase of paper products, driven by the expectation of the peak season, there may be an upward trend in prices. However, if the price increase is not sustainable, the fluctuation of pulp futures will be limited. It is expected that future spot prices will still be mainly volatile, and there will be no trend change in the short term.

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