SunSirs: South Africa extended the blockade for 14 days, and the price of manganese and silicon may rise.

1. Price trend

According to SunSirs price monitoring, the market of silicon-manganese alloy fell slightly this week, down about 100 yuan / ton from last week. At present, the specifications of manganese-silicon Ningxia area are FeMN68Si18, and the ex-factory price is about 6500 yuan / ton.

Thanks to the support of rising mineral prices, starting on the 24th of last month, the market for silicon-manganese alloys was firm and prices were rising all the way. However, in the face of high prices, the actual market acceptance is not high. At present, the prices of some steel mills in the north and south have been announced one after another, and the number of bids has generally declined. This reflects the slow decompression of steel mill inventories and the gradual slowdown of terminal consumption rhythm under the influence of the epidemic. Alloy factories are also affected, and demand is lower. The prolonged blockade time in South Africa, the lack of supply of manganese ore in South Africa, and manganese miners are in a strong mood to rise. Taking into account the cost support, the factory's willingness to continue to cut prices and take goods is not high, SunSirs analysis believes that the market for silicon manganese alloys may rise or increase.

2. Analysis of influencing factors

In April, Hegang's manganese silicon bidding and procurement volume decreased

Hesteel Group's April pricing: 6600 yuan / ton, (the first round of inquiry is 6500 yuan / ton, the March mining price: 5900 yuan / ton, and the April 2019 mining price: 7850 yuan / ton). Recovery: 18,300 tons, a decrease of 1,380 tons from 19,680 tons in March 2020. Compared with the same period last year (amount recovered in April 2019: 23690 tons), it decreased by 5390 tons.

A steel plant in Guangdong issued a purchase price of silicon manganese alloy in April, which was 6700 yuan / ton, which was 580 yuan / ton higher than last month, and the purchase quantity was 9000 tons;

Yangchun Iron and Steel's April purchase price of silicon manganese alloy is 6600 yuan / ton, and the purchase quantity is 4000 tons;

A Hunan steel plant purchased silicon manganese alloy in April at a price of 6630 yuan / ton, and the quantity purchased was 5000 tons.

Hunan Xiangtan Iron and Steel in April calibrated silicon manganese 6700 yuan / ton, an increase of 550 yuan / ton compared with March, the purchase volume of 8000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared with March.

Manganese ore outer disk rose alloy factory acceptance is not high

The price of Gabon's block in May of Kang Mi Lao was raised. Mn44.5% Gabon block reported US $ 5.55 / ton degree, up 1.4 USD / ton degree; Mn41% Gabon seed reported US $ 5.1 / ton degree, an increase of USD 1.35 / ton degree. Manganese miners are facing the current inventory backlog, the factories are not under pressure to accept high-priced goods, and they are not willing to accept external price increases.

The data shows that the Tianjin Port Manganese Mine Australia reported 52-53 yuan / ton degree (↓ 2), semi-carbonic acid 47-50 yuan / ton degree (↓ 1), Gabon block 49-50 yuan / ton degree (↓ 2); Qinzhou The mainstream block in Hong Kong reported 52 yuan / ton degree, 50 yuan / ton degree for semi-carbonic acid, and 48 yuan / ton degree for Gabon block, which was adjusted compared with yesterday and the range was about 2 yuan / ton degree.

South Africa extends blockade for 14 days

The government of Gabon also declared a state of emergency. At present, Gabon has a relatively small number of diagnoses. However, there are different views on whether the situation will escalate later. South Africa allows ships that have not completed the previous shipment to be shipped, which has eased the domestic supply in May.

On April 10th, President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa announced the extension of South Africa ’s blockade for 14 days. The South Africa blockade order was extended from 21 days to 35 days. The previous more than 700,000 tons increased to more than 1.1 million tons, and the manganese miners closed the market. According to statistics from insiders, the 14-day extension of the blockade is expected to affect 469,000-393,000 tons, affecting the domestic arrival cycle: late May to early June.

The data shows that the import volume of South Africa's manganese ore has increased year by year, and its import volume has increased from 7.09 million tons in 2016 to 13.42 million tons in 2019, an increase of 89.2% in 4 years. As one of the main mines used in alloy production, South African mine imports generally account for about 40% of the country's manganese ore imports.

Demand for downstream steel is recovering

Domestic steel production continued to rise this week, while steel mills and social inventories continued to decline, indicating that the recent demand for downstream steel continued to show a recovery trend; this week, the national main steel social stocks were 22.3955 million tons, a decrease of 1.0615 million tons from last week, compared with last month Reduced 3.5898 million tons; total rebar inventory was 12.11 million tons. At present, the domestic steel market is still in the destocking stage in the short term, and prices may still be consolidated.

3. Future market forecast

In general, the iconic steel companies, Hegang Group, and manganese silicon began to bid for prices. The market is basically clear, basically around 6600 yuan / ton. The prolonged blockade of South Africa has led to a lack of supply of South African manganese ore, which has made the manganese miners' mood to be strong. Considering the cost support, the factory's willingness to continue to cut prices and sell goods is not high, and analysts at SunSirs believe that the market outlook for silicon-manganese alloys will increase.

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