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SunSirs: Pure benzene fell for two consecutive weeks in a row for three consecutive weeks, and the profits rose back on the weekend (03/ 20-04/05)

April 08 2020 06:24:52     SunSirs (Molly)

1. Price Trend
According to the SunSirs bulk list data, the focus of pure benzene prices moved down again this week, and rebounded slightly over the weekend. Last weekend, the price of pure benzene was 2850-3700 yuan / ton (average price 3010 yuan / ton). The list price of pure benzene at this weekend is 2250-2850 yuan / ton (average price 2450 yuan / ton), down 560 yuan / ton from last week, a decrease of 18.6%.

2. Factor analysis

Product: The inventory of East China Port has accumulated significantly for two consecutive weeks, and the market supply pressure is increasing. This week, Sinopec continued the situation of the last two weeks. It fell for two consecutive weeks during the week. It was reduced by 850 yuan / ton in the first week, 800 yuan / ton in the second week, 600 yuan / ton in the third week, and 2250 yuan / week Ton. At the beginning of the week, crude oil and external disk continued to be bearish, and pure benzene weakly fell to 2250-2700 yuan / ton. Crude oil closed up sharply on Friday, followed by an increase in the external market. Domestic pure benzene was driven, and rose to 2250-2900 yuan / ton on the weekend.

 External disk: At the beginning of the week, the market continued last week, and the external disk continued to decline. Stimulated by the favorable oil on Friday, it stopped falling and rose back. Compared with March 27, this week, South Korean imports of pure benzene fell 43.67 US dollars / ton, a decrease of 13.73%; East China imported pure benzene fell 30.5 US dollars / ton, a decrease of 9.12%.

Crude oil: At the beginning of the week, crude oil extended last week's decline, and oil futures fell below $ 20 per barrel. Later news, Saudi Arabia and Russia may be willing to cut crude oil production, oil prices rebounded strongly. Compared with March 27, this week Brent rose $ 2.57 / barrel, an increase of 12.18%, WTI rose $ 5.75 / barrel, an increase of 22.86%. Compared with March 31, 2020, Brent rose 33.92%, WTI rose 26.07%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent fell 64.55% and WTI fell 49.15%.

Downstream industry: This week styrene fell after rebounding. The price in Shandong this Friday was 4,700 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 0.35% from last week.

This week, the aniline market price fell. This Friday, the price in Shandong was 5300 yuan / ton, and the price in Nanjing was 5400 yuan / ton, a weekly decline of 10.86%.

3. Market Forecast

Crude oil: follow the progress of the OPEC + meeting.

Market: There is no major improvement in the short-term downstream operating rate, and it is difficult to increase domestic demand; in addition, there will still be 35,000-40,000 tons of pure benzene coming to the port next week, and the supply pressure will continue to increase. However, crude oil and external disks brought good news and supported pure benzene prices.

It is expected that the overall short-term pure benzene market will be weak, but it is possible that it will rise.

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