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SunSirs: Crude Oil may Stay at Low prices, Polyamide Prices down

March 30 2020 08:55:59     SunSirs (Linda)

According to statistics from SunSirs, as of March 27, the polyamide DTY in Jiangsu region was reported at 15,567 yuan / ton, down 1,266 yuan / ton from the beginning of the month, a 7.52% decrease, and a 26.92% year-on-year decrease; the polyamide POY was reported at 13,520 yuan / ton. It fell 800 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.59%, and a decrease of 26.36% year-on-year. The price of polyamide FDY was 17,000 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1,000 yuan / ton, a 5.56% decrease, and a 26.88% year-on-year decrease.

Supply and demand imbalance, crude oil prices plunged. On March 6, a new round of OPEC + production cut negotiations broke down, and international oil prices plummeted by 30% to around $ 30 / barrel that day. As of March 27, WTI crude oil fell 52.01% in March. Various oil-producing countries have begun to increase production and cut prices to seize the market. Saudi oil giant Saudi Aram said that April supply will reach 12.3 million barrels per day. Russia responded that it has the ability to increase production by 500,000 barrels per day to a record 11.8 million barrels per day day. Countries such as Iraq, Nigeria, the UAE, and Kuwait have also announced that they will join the army to increase production. Crude oil production is progressing, but demand is falling sharply. The new crown pneumonia epidemic is spreading globally, escalating regulatory measures in multiple countries and regions, aviation, transportation, reduced travel, and slowed economic activities. Crude oil may remain at a low price.

Cost support collapsed, demand was flat, and the price of nylon raw materials plummeted. The price of cyclohexanone fell by about 1,200 yuan / ton in March, and the actual market price was between 5,600-6,100 yuan / ton. Caprolactam fell by about 1,300 yuan / ton, and PA6 fell by about 2,200 yuan / ton. The downstream consumes inventory mainly, and the willingness to purchase is not strong. PA6 inventory becomes a problem and the decline is large.

In March, some polyamide enterprises were still in the state of order production because of the raw materials that existed years ago. The operating rate of the factories was relatively low, the willingness to purchase was not strong, and the high inventory cost supported the quotation. In mid-March, most manufacturers successively lowered their offers, and some companies' weekly losses have remained around 500 yuan / ton. It can be seen from the price trends of cyclohexanone and polyamide POY that crude oil prices are low or difficult to change. Cyclohexanone has a cliff-like decline in the middle and late March, while the price trend of polyamide POY is relatively flat, and filament manufacturers are still digesting inventory. , And the price exploration stage.

Crude oil fluctuates at a low level, and polyamide orders are weak. As inventory is consumed and costs decrease, pricing gradually drops. SunSirs analysts believe that cost support is insufficient and orders are also not optimistic. Polyamide is expected to continue to decline.

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