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SunSirs: Acrylonitrile-Butadiene Rubber Continues to Be Weak Owing to Low Price of Crude Oil

March 20 2020 10:12:51     SunSirs (Daisy)

The acrylonitrile-butadiene rubber commodity index was 70.64 on March 17, unchanged from the previous day, down 42.88% from the highest 123.67 points in the cycle (2017-February-20), and up 36.85% from the lowest 51.62 points on March 8, 2016. 

The price of acrylonitrile-butadiene rubber in early March was at 15,566 RMB/ton. Up to March 17, that price was at 15,000 RMB/ton. The overall price since March was down 3.64%.

Global: In March, OPEC and OPEC + failed to negotiate on crude oil production reduction, and Saudi Arabia and other countries continued to increase production, which led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices and formed a strong pressure on the whole chemical industry chain from the source. On the other hand, WTIs April contract fell 39.63% from the closing price of $47.52 / BBL on March 2 to the closing price of $28.69 / BBL on March 16.

Raw Material: The price of raw material butadiene acrylonitrile is low. On the one hand, the price of raw material acrylonitrile fell sharply. The ex-factory price of acrylonitrile in Shanghai secco was 8,950 RMB/ton in early March, and the ex-factory price of acrylonitrile was reduced to 8,300 RMB/ton as of March 16. Anqing petrochemical factory price of acrylonitrile from the beginning of the month was 9,500 RMB/ton fell to 8,500 RMB/ton on March 16. 

On the other hand, raw material butadiene price has a low-level fluctuation. Since March, the domestic butadiene price is in a low slightly shock trend. Up to March 16, domestic butadiene price was 6256 RMB/ton.

Industrial Chain: Domestic production units gradually increased, nitrile downstream rubber tape and other industries have been returning to work, but the overall installation is still insufficient. 

At present, the restarting rate of the downstream industry is close to 90%, but the overall operating rate is still not high. Meanwhile, thee nitrile butadiene rubber procurement was more on demand, and the purchase volume is not obvious improved. 

Market Forecast: SunSirs analysts believe that the price of crude oil, butadiene, acrylonitrile is still low, from the cost of NBR formation negative. On the other hand, domestic enterprises resume production, and he demand side can still rise. Generally, acrylonitrile-butadiene rubber will have a fluctuation in the short term. 

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