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SunSirs: Qiaoshui Hedge Fund was Reported to Suffer Redemptions, Chinese Spot Copper Declined 1.62% on March 18

March 19 2020 10:08:53     SunSirs (Linda)

1. Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, on the 18th, the spot copper price was 41,395 yuan/ton, which was 1.62% lower than the previous day's offer, and 17.32% lower year on year. The main contract of Shanghai Copper may be worse, and the daily limit closed at 39,960 yuan, a decrease of 6.26%.

2. Market analysis

In the afternoon market, it was reported that the hedge fund owned by Qiaoshui suffered a large number of redemptions after the plunge. The market was further panic caused by doubts about liquidity. The pessimism in the market heated up sharply in the afternoon. The domestic Shanghai copper plummeted to the limit and the LME copper fell below the $ 5,000 mark. Inventories increased significantly by 40,600 tons to 220,325 tons. Goldman Sachs cut its forecast for the average copper price in the next three months from $ 5,900 per ton to $ 4,900. Standard Chartered Bank forecasts that the average copper price in the second quarter will be $ 5,420 per ton. National Bureau of Statistics data show that China ’s refined copper output from January to February increased by 2.8% to 1,527,000 per year. Downstream consumption remains weak, and overall market trading is weak.

3. Future outlook

Based on the above situation, the copper analyst of the Nonferrous Metals Branch of SunSirs believes that the comprehensive expectations are poor, the inventory is accumulated, and the short-term copper price is still weak.

Related listed companies: Jiangxi Copper (600362), Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630), Yunnan Copper (000878).

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