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SunSirs: The melamine market has not changed on March 11

March 12 2020 14:24:10     SunSirs (Molly)

1. Price trend:

On the 11th, the melamine market was stable. The operating rate of melamine is less than 60%, terminal demand is recovering slowly, buying gas is light, and manufacturers' sales are under pressure. According to data from the SunSirs block list, the mainstream quotation in the domestic melamine market on the 11th was around 5100 ~ 5600 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with yesterday. At present, the mainstream quotation of melamine in Xinjiang is around 4800 yuan / ton; the mainstream quotation of melamine in Sichuan is around 5300 yuan / ton; the mainstream quotation of melamine in Henan is around 5100 yuan / ton. The prevailing price of melamine in Shandong is around 5,600 yuan/ ton.

2. Market analysis:

Product: The melamine commodity index on March 11 was 63.80, which was the same as yesterday, which was 36.20% lower than the highest point of the cycle at 100.00 (2011-09-18), and an increase of 11.99% from the lowest point of 56.97 on February 24, 2015. . (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present)

Industry chain: The recent rise in the market price of liquid ammonia in the upstream. At present, the market is under the condition of little supply pressure. The peak season driven by demand recovery has increased the operating rate of manufacturers, and with the increasing operating rate of downstream manufacturers, liquid ammonia Inventory pressures have eased to some extent. It is expected that as the spring season comes, the downstream nitrogen fertilizer production will expand. It is expected that the short-term market will maintain a mild trend and the mid- and long-term prices will stabilize.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there are 8 types of commodities in the chemical sector that have risen in the commodity price list on March 11, 2020. The top three commodities are liquid ammonia (2.50%) and ammonium chloride (2.19%). ), Fluorite (0.99%). There were 19 types of products with a month-on-month decrease, and 1 type of products with a decline of more than 5%, which accounted for 1.1% of the number of monitored products in this sector; the top 3 products were OX (-10.71%) and hydrogenated benzene (-4.05 %), Acetone (-4.00%). The average daily increase or decrease was -0.37%.

3. Market Forecast:

SunSirs melamine analysts believe that rising raw material prices have a certain supporting effect on the cost of melamine, but there is insufficient motivation to follow up the downstream consumption rate. It is expected that the melamine market may consolidate at a low level in the short term.

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