SunSirs: The Saudi Aramco factory was Attacked, Can the Crude Oil Surge Continue?

On September 16, the US WTI crude oil futures market price soared to $62.90 per barrel, an increase of $8.05. Brent crude oil futures rose sharply to $69.02 per barrel, an increase of $8.8. In particular, Brent crude oil, which opened on September 16, raised rapidly more than 10%, surging nearly 19% in the session, at its highest level in nearly four months.

On September 14, Beijing time, two Saudi Aramco factories were attacked, causing a temporary disruption of Saudi production capacity of about 5.7 million barrels per day, which was about 5% of current global crude oil production. It is rare for so many crude oil production capacity to be interrupted in the short term. It is reported that the oil supply disruption in Saudi Arabia is the most serious in history, surpassing the oil supply disruption in Kuwait and Iraq in August 1990 and the loss of Iranian oil production during the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

In the latest news, Saudi officials are considering postponing the Saudi Arabian Amy IPO and seeking to assess the losses before changing the Saudi Aramco IPO plan. Saudi Arabia's Aramco Oil Company has asked local and international contractors to assess the damage to two key oil facilities caused by the attack, which is expected to take at least a few weeks for partial recovery. Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil are rising again. As of September 16, WTI crude oil futures in the United States closed up 12.52%, the biggest one-day gain in more than 10 years. Brent crude oil futures closed up 12.79%, the biggest one-day gain in nearly 30 years.

How does the future market of crude oil operate?

Some analysts said the surge may be just the beginning, given that Saudi oil supply disruption could last for months. Sandy Fielden, research director at Morningstar, said Brent crude oil could rise to $80 a barrel tomorrow and WTI crude oil to $75 a barrel tomorrow, but that would depend on the latest progress on resumption of production announced by Saudi Aramco.

As far as further information is concerned, Yemen's Hussein armed forces said on the 16th that the oil facilities attacked in Saudi Arabia were still the targets of the armed forces: Yehaia Saliah, spokesman for the Hussein armed forces, issued a statement on the same day saying that "they may be attacked again at any time", which further exacerbated the worrying atmosphere of the market, in this regard, the market is still multi-camp situation in the near future.

SunSirs’ analysts believe that the market is basically disrupted in the short term and emergency plans are being launched. Saudi officials say that Saudi Arabia and the United States will make up for this loss through oil inventories, which can restore 2 million barrels per day of crude oil production, and market concerns about the supply gap have eased. In addition, the U.S. Department of Energy announced the release of 9.98 million barrels of strategic crude oil stocks. Russia's Ministry of Energy said it had sufficient commercial crude oil reserves to fill the gap caused by Saudi Arabia. Two major oil producers have expressed their views, which further alleviated market concerns. Therefore, the recent oil boom may have cooled down, but there are still uncertainties about oil prices in the future before the full recovery of Saudi Arabia's Aramco plant and the relief of the crisis, and it is not excluded that oil prices will continue to rise due to geographic premiums.

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