SunSirs: Energy, Coke Market Slightly Declined Last Week (March 2-6)

Price Trend

On March 8, the coke commodity index was 87.31, unchanged from the previous day, down 35.35% from the highest point 135.04 (2018-09-13), and up 151.98% from the lowest point 34.65 on March 3, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Market Analysis

Price: according to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the price of domestic coke market was declined last week. At present, the mainstreamprices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Shanghai are 1,880 RMB/ton and 1,940 RMB/tonrespectively; in Xuzhou are 1,850 RMB/ ton and 1,920RMB/ ton; in Weifang, Shandong are 1,790 RMB/ ton and 1,850 RMB/ ton. The mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province are 1,690 RMB/ ton and 1,740 RMB/ ton; the mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang Province are 1,730 RMB/ ton and 1,790 RMB/ ton; in Shenyang, Liaoning Province are 1,760 RMB/ ton and 1,820 RMB/ ton. The mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Pingdingshan, Henan Province are 1,850 RMB/ ton and 1,950 RMB/ tonrespectively.The mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Tangshan, Hebei Province are 1,780 RMB/ ton and 1,830 RMB/ ton; in Tianjin are 1,800RMB/ ton and 1,900 RMB/ ton. The mainstream prices of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market in Sichuan Province, Liupanshui coke market of Guizhou province and Erdos coke market are 1,930 RMB/ ton, 2,020 RMB/ ton and 1,450 RMB/tonrespectively.

Products: last week, the price of domestic coke market fell, the enterprise mentality was poor. In terms of coking coal, affected by the decline of coke price, the purchasing intention of coke enterprises decreased, the operating rate of coke enterprises increased, most of the enterprises were in full production, and the supply was sufficient. Some enterprises in some regions had certain inventory, and some enterprises in Northwest and East China Limited production and maintenance. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of quasi-primary wet quenching coke in Shanxi Province is around 1600-1700 RMB/ ton. In terms of port, the trading is poor, the enthusiasm of traders is not high, and most downstream steel plants mainly purchase on demand.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there were five commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the ninth week of 2020 (3.2-3.6), among which the top three were MTBE (3.42%), petroleum coke (3.37%) and LPG (3.20%). There were 9 kinds of commodities with a decline on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products were coke (-3.11%), gasoline (-2.56%) and DME (-1.68%). This week's average was -0.03%.

Market Forecast

Coke analysts of SunSirs believe that in the short term, the sufficient supply of Coke will last for some time, and there is still room for the price to go down, mainly focusing on the demand of steel mills.

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