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SunSirs: Energy, Coke Rebounds following Rebar Ore

March 05 2020 11:01:54     SunSirs (Selena)

Futures: Coke opened low and rose slightly on Wednesday, closing at 1,833 (up 4.5), adding 975 positions and slightly increasing trading volume. Many countries have cut interest rates in succession, domestic policy easing is expected to further strengthen, and the rise of rebar ore led to the rebound of coke. The supply of coking coal is gradually loose, the weakness of coal price weakens the support of coke cost; the demand increment of coke in downstream steel plants is limited, and the second round of lifting and lowering is gradually implemented. Coke is subject to short-term or continuous pressure shocks, and attention should be paid to the change of market expectation and supply and demand rhythm.

Spot: the overall transaction of coke market is average, and the second round of increase and decrease of 50% accelerates the landing. Quotation of metallurgical coke: Rizhao grade II 1,850, Tangshan grade II 1,800, Linfen grade I 1,700. In terms of coke enterprises, after the recovery of coke coal supply, the capacity utilization rate and coke daily average output of coke enterprises have been improved. The coke supply has a slight increase trend. After the second round of lifting and lowering, the enthusiasm for shipment is still high, and the port has declined 80-100 in total. On the steel plant side, the passive production reduction due to the unsalable finished products and inventory pressure is still continuing, and the demand for coke is still limited after the increase and decrease. The coke arrival quantity is mainly controlled to purchase on demand, and the coke spot operation is weak in short term.

Strategy analysis: in the first quarter of the current economic pressure, the government strengthened macro-control, increased counter cyclical regulation, loose policies to stabilize the market. In the near future, the state will guide the orderly resumption of production, loose monetary policy, stable investment in infrastructure and other macro policies will increase, and the demand for black varieties is expected to increase in the later period, which will support the low level of far month contracts. This year, some regions still have Coke capacity reduction tasks. The supply side of coke is loose for a short time. Due to the influence of inventory pressure and cash flow, the downstream steel plants passively reduce production. The demand for short-term coke is compressed and the spot is under pressure.

 

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