SunSirs: Energy, Domestic Naphtha Market Rebounded after Falling in February

Price Data

According to the latest monitoring data of SunSirs, as of February 28, the average factory price of domestic refined naphtha was 6,276.67 RMB/ ton, down 1.72% from 6,386.67 RMB/ ton at the beginning of this month, and rebounded after the price of refined naphtha fell last month.

The naphtha commodity index on February 28 was 77.47, unchanged from the previous day, down 24.51% from 102.62 (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 83.40% from 42.24, the lowest point on July 19, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

Analysis of Iinfluencing Factors

Product: the price of refined naphtha rebounded after falling last month. At present, the mainstream price of hydrogenated naphtha is about 6,200 RMB/ ton. On February 26, the price difference between Asian naphtha price and spot price was at a four day low, which was affected by the strong Brent crude oil and the poor performance of ethylene demand. The price difference of naphtha cracking hit a two-week low.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, WTI crude oil in the United States at the beginning of the month was $51.56/ barrel, $47.09/ barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase or decrease of -8.67%; Brent crude oil at the beginning of the month is $56.62/ barrel, $51.73/ barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase or decrease of -8.64%. At the beginning of the month, affected by COVID-19 in China, domestic refineries reduced their operating rates, and domestic crude oil market demand fell sharply. Three major institutions, OPEC, EIA and IEA, simultaneously lowered the growth rate of global crude oil demand this year. In the late ten days, COVID-19 had a trend of spreading in other regions of the world, such as the Middle East and Europe. The spread of globalization worried the market about future economic development. The price of international crude oil market is declining. Downstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, the current mainstream price in East China is about 4,950 RMB/ ton. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 5,000 RMB / ton. In recent years, the market price trend of p-xylene in China has declined. The domestic PX operating rate is about 70%, and the market price is about 6,300 RMB / ton.

Market Forecast

According to the energy analyst of SunSirs, affected by COVID-19, the logistics was blocked. In the first ten days of February, the price of naphtha continued to fall, some refineries were overhauled in advance, the supply was reduced, and the price rebounded in the middle ten days. However, with the spread of COVID-19, the price of international crude oil fell sharply, and the price of naphtha fell, but affected by the supply and demand, the price of naphtha had little impact. It is expected that the price of refined naphtha in March will decline slightly, with the average price range of 6,000-6,300 RMB/ ton.

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