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SunSirs: Analysis of Domestic Silicomanganese and Spot Market in February

March 02 2020 16:25:42     SunSirs (Molly)

1 The price trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the market price of manganese and silicon rose this month and then fell down. The current price is basically between 6100-6200 yuan / ton, which is basically the same as last month. At present, the manganese-silicon Ningxia region has a specification of FeMN68Si18 and the ex-factory price is 6116.67 yuan / ton, which is about 500-600 yuan / ton lower than the price at the beginning of the month. The highest point of the price appears at around 6700 yuan / ton in the middle of the month, and the lowest point appears at the end of the month, with the price of about 6100 yuan / ton.

2. Analysis of influencing factors

At the beginning of the next month, the price of manganese and silicon rose strongly, compared with the pre-holiday period, the overall increase was around 500 yuan / ton. There are not many stocks in the company. Years ago, there were many companies that increased environmental protection and limited electricity, stopped production and reduced production. They returned after the year and were affected by the epidemic. The transportation was not smooth. When most factories indicated that coke, manganese ore and other raw materials were inadequate, the market output or Will decrease. Consumption over a period of time, the current major steel mills have said that there are not many raw materials, some new round of bidding for silicon-manganese alloy has been started, and the overall inquiry and procurement atmosphere has significantly improved.

In the next month, the transportation was not smooth, and it was difficult to spread the goods in a large area. In the face of high-price market acceptance, the manganese-silicon market returned to rationality, and the price was slightly loose.

At the end of the next month, the tendering of steel mills in February basically came to an end. March tendering had not yet started, and the steel mills had undergone different levels of maintenance and production reductions, and the overall demand situation was average. At the same time, the prices of raw materials manganese ore fell, and the prices of manganese and silicon began to decline.

Manganese-silicon bidding prices rose in February and fell in March

Luohe Steel Group's bidding price for silicon-manganese alloy in February was RMB 7,200 / t with tax acceptance, which was RMB 600 / t higher than the price in January, and the purchase amount was 26,000 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from January;

Liyang Chunxin Iron & Steel's March purchase price of silicon and manganese was 6,600 yuan / ton, down 750 yuan / ton from the previous month.

Manganese ore demand is expected to weaken in the later period

The domestic manganese ore market continues to operate weakly. Affected by the continued weakening of downstream manganese alloy prices, manufacturers are cautious in purchasing. In addition, the reduction in sales of overseas futures quotations from China to China in April has also affected the willingness of domestic manganese miners to order, and due to the reduction in production by steel mills In the face of falling prices, silicon-manganese manufacturers have to successively choose to overhaul or reduce production in order to reduce the supply of silicon-manganese, which will lead to a shrinking period of demand for manganese ore.

UMK quoted China's manganese ore in April, Mn36% South African block reported at US $ 4.6 / tonne, flat compared with March, but domestic acceptance is generally low;

south32 announced the quotation for the shipment of manganese ore to China in March, of which the Mn45% Australian block was US $ 4.88 / tonne, an increase of US $ 0.58 / tonne; the Mn46% Australian block was US $ 4.62 / tonne, an increase of US $ 0.55 / tonne ; Mn37.5% South African block is 4.5 US dollars / ton degree, an increase of 0.7 US dollars / ton degree.

3. Market Forcast

In summary, the overall wait-and-see mood of the market is heating up, the market is overcast and the market is not confident enough, and the enthusiasm of the alloy plant for production will also shrink. It will be planned to stop the furnace and reduce the load. SunSirs analysts believe that the manganese and silicon market will continue to run weakly and steadily in the short term, or there may be a further reduction.

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