SunSirs: Energy, the Price Domestic Fuel Oil 180CST Fell Slightly Last Week (February24-28)

Price Data

As of February 28, the average selling price of domestic fuel oil was 4,816 RMB/ ton, down 0.41% from 4,836 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the week.

On February 28, the fuel oil commodity index was 97.54, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.85% from 115.91 (October 17, 2018), the highest point in the cycle, and up 111.68% from 46.08, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: domestic fuel oil shipments were general week, and the actual transaction price was about 4,800 RMB/ ton.

Industry chain: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, WTI crude oil in the United States is $53.38/ barrel at the beginning of the week, $47.09/ barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of -11.78%; Brent crude oil is $58.50/ barrel at the beginning of the week, $51.73/ barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of -11.57%.  The global COVID-19 has a trend of spreading. The spread of globalization worries the market about future economic development, and the price of international crude oil market keeps falling.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there were two kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the eighth week of 2020 (2.24-2.28), among which the top 2 were methanol (0.50%) and coking coal (0.45%). There were thirteen kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 4 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling were WTI crude oil (-11.78%), Brent crude oil (-11.57%), and LPG (-8.64%). This week's average was -3.14%.

Market Forecast

Energy analysts of SunSirs think that the international crude oil continues to fall this week, the overall demand of domestic ship fuel market is low, and the transaction is light. It is expected that the fuel oil market price will decline slightly in the near future, or around 4,800 RMB/ ton.

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