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SunSirs: Energy, Rise Suspended, LPG Market Temporarily Stabilized and Then Declined

March 02 2020 10:22:13     SunSirs (Selena)

Price Trend

Last week, the domestic LPG (Shandong) market was stable first and then fell. On February 24, the average price of LPG market was 4,050 RMB/ ton, and on February 28, the average price was 3,700 RMB/ ton, with a decline of 8.64% during the period. The price was 7.88% lower than that of the same period last year.

Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: LPG market fell back after continuous upward trend. As of February 28, the price of LPG from Sinopec Guangzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. was 4,010 RMB/ ton, that of Sinopec Jingmen Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was 4,400 RMB/ ton, that of Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was 3,920 RMB/ ton, that of Sinopec Qingdao Refining Chemical Co., Ltd. was 3,800 RMB/ ton, and that of Shandong Jincheng Petrochemical was 3,750 RMB/ ton. The LPG price of Sinopec Shijiazhuang refining and chemical company was 3,550 RMB/ ton. The price of Sinopec Luoyang Petrochemical LPG was 3,850 RMB/ ton.

In the early stage, the overall demand of LPG market was good, and the price went up with a large increase. But this week, the market's rise slowed down and prices recovered. International crude oil fell sharply this week due to COVID-19. In the early stage, as the price continues to rise to a high level, the downstream resistance mentality has increased. At present, the domestic resumption has not been fully recovered. As the downstream staged replenishment is over, the stock is gradually withdrawn from the market and consumed. The market transaction atmosphere is slightly lighter than that in the early stage. The manufacturer's shipment is not smooth, and the stock is gradually increasing. Since February 26, the price has declined.

Saudi Aramco issued CP in February, with propane of $505/ ton, down $60/ ton compared with the previous month; butane of $545/ ton, down $45/ ton compared with the previous month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there were two kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the eighth week of 2020 (2.24-2.28), among which the top 2 were methanol (0.50%) and coking coal (0.45%). There were thirteen kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 4 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling were WTI crude oil (-11.78%), Brent crude oil (-11.57%), and LPG (-8.64%). This week's average was -3.14%.

Market Forecast

At present, the market supply is still running at a low level. Although the downstream resumption of work has increased, it has not been fully recovered. The downstream has withdrawn from the market and consumed inventory after periodic replenishment. The delivery atmosphere of the manufacturer is obviously weaker than that of the earlier stage, the inventory is gradually increasing, the firmness situation is not there, and the price is reasonable. It is expected that the demand will increase next week, and the downstream will start to replenish periodically, so that the price may stop falling and rise slightly.

 

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