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SunSirs: Acrylonitrile-Butadiene Rubber Went Weak Around February

March 02 2020 09:55:17     SunSirs (Daisy)

On February 28, the acrylonitrile-butadiene rubbe commodity index was 73.31, down 0.79 points from yesterday, down 40.72% from the cycle high of 123.67 points (2017-Feb.-20), and up 42.02% from the low of 51.62 points on March 08, 2016. 

The price of acrylonitrile-butadiene rubber at the beginning of February is 16,200 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month is 15,733 yuan/ton, which is 2.88% lower than that at the beginning of the month.

First, crude oil fell sharply dragging down the raw material of acrylonitrile-butadiene rubber namely butadiene and acrylonitrile. The price of butadiene in China has dropped sharply, from 8,056 RMB/ ton at the beginning of February to 6,223 RMB / ton at the end of February, down 22.75% overall. On the other hand, the ex-factory price of domestic acrylonitrile Shanghai secco in east China dropped from 10400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8950 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 13.94% overall.

Secondly, affected by "COVID-19" epidemic prevention and control, especially in the first and middle of February, domestic traffic control is relatively strict. The flow of production materials is not smooth. On the other hand, the resumption of production of domestic downstream enterprises have been delayed. Post-holiday demand is much less than in previous years. Up to the middle of February, the rate of rework of enterprises in the downstream rubber and belt industry is only within 40% or less. The area of rework did not gradually increase until the end of the month, and the rate of rework in east China is relatively high. Therefore, the overall market is quite light in February, forming the negative impact on acrylonitrile-butadiene rubber.

Finally, in February, the overall operating rate of the domestic acrylonitrile-butadiene rubber industry is relatively low around 6-70%, and the supply of acrylonitrile-butadiene rubber forms a certain support. The domestic Lanzhou petrochemical, Zhenjiang Nandi nitrile device, such as normal start, Jinpu low load start, Shunze nitrile in February to stop maintenance. As of the end of February, Lanhua nitrile N41E reported 15,000 yuan/ton, 3305E reported 15,500 yuan/ton, and 3308E reported 15,600 yuan/ton.

Market forecasting, SunSirs analysts said that oil, butadiene, acrylonitrile prices are still low, especially crude oil downside risk is still in. On the other hand, domestic enterprises gradually expand the surface of the resumption of work, and later demand will increase. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream, the trend of acrylonitrile-butadiene rubber in the later stage is unclear. A good resumption of domestic production will push up the price, but the continued sharp decline in crude oil will drag down the whole industrial chain.

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