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SunSirs: Overall Demand is Still Weak, Polyester FDY is Down Slightly

February 26 2020 09:31:09     SunSirs (Linda)

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the market price of polyester FDY in China has been generally weak recently. Most of the mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province have reduced the price by 50-200 RMB/ton, including 6,750-7,200 RMB/ton for polyester POY (150D/48F), 8,650-9,050 RMB/ton for polyester DTY (150D/48F) and 7,300-7,950 RMB/ton for polyester FDY (150D/96F). At present, the factory mainly focuses on making orders or production inventory before the year, and some new orders are basically replenished by old customers. The demand side recovers slowly, and the market is carefully watched, waiting for the market to improve.

Average market price of polyester FDY in recent 10 days, unit: RMB/ton

Product

Feb 15, 2020

Feb 25, 2020

Up and down

Year on year

Polyester POY(150D/48F)

7,214

7,054

-2.22%

-16.30%

Polyester FDY(150D/96F)

7,706

7,598

-1.41%

-18.12%

Polyester DTY(150D/48F low elastic)

8,948

8,806

-1.59%

-14.50%

The upstream PTA market price maintained a downward trend. As of February 25, the domestic PTA spot market price was 4,413 RMB/ton, down 3.33% compared with that of February 15, down 32.25% year on year. Up to now, PTA's social circulation inventory has exceeded 2 million tons to 2.265 million tons, which has reached a high level in the past four years. The main reason why PTA stock keeps rising is still the continuous shutdown of downstream weaving Market. PTA plant restart and load reduction coexist. The current PTA operating rate is 81.48%, but the overall operating rate is still high. Next week, Jiangyin Hanbang and Huabin Petrochemical have plans to restart. Therefore, under the imbalance of supply and demand, PTA inventory accumulation has a certain negative effect on the price.

Company

Capacity (10,000tons/ year)

Recent changes

Shanghai petrochemical

40

Down to 60%

Tianjin petrochemical

34

Down to 70%

Luoyang petrochemical

32.5

Down to 50%

Hengli petrochemical

250

Feb 15, the load of 2.5 million tons of new equipment was increased to 90%

Fuhaichuang

450

Up to 80% on Feb 15

Jiangyin Hanbang

220

Shutdown on Feb 14

At present, the downstream textile market, Keqiao China Light Textile City field was fully restored to work on February 18, and the first day of opening of China's Eastern Silk Market on February 21, the rate of resumption of work exceeded 80%. Most textile enterprises in Zhejiang and Jiangsu returned to work in succession from February 17 to 21, and the return time of printing and dyeing enterprises in Jiangsu was around March. On the whole, the resumption of work of enterprises is advancing in an orderly manner. At present, medium and large textile enterprises are willing to resume work actively, with a high rate of resumption. Small enterprises are slow to resume work. In the face of tight cash flow, shortage of epidemic protective equipment and huge employment pressure, the business risk increases. At the same time, due to the lack of staff in place, many logistics constraints, and the scale of sales has not yet started, therefore, the purchasing of raw materials should be cautious, and the overall demand is still weak.

Analysts of SunSirs believes that the main factories in PTA market focus on maintenance and reduce load to relieve inventory pressure, but the problem of high inventory is still prominent, which restricts the price. At the same time, textile enterprises in the lower reaches of the terminal returned to work and production increased, but the overall market recovery was slow, and the epidemic had a certain impact on domestic and foreign demand in the short term. Therefore, polyester FDY will maintain a weak trend in the short term, but with the accelerated pace of terminal resumption, the downstream order volume will recover, the demand side will be improved, and the price will also usher in the possibility of rebound.

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