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SunSirs: Energy, Port Purchase and Sales Inquiry Increased, Coke Low Support Enhanced

February 14 2020 09:40:44     SunSirs (Selena)

Futures: coke market adjusted on Thursday, ending 1,886 (up 31), with a total reduction of more than 4,000 positions and a decrease in trading volume. Limited by the shortage of raw materials for coking coal, the supply of coke is mostly limited in production, with a large reduction in output, and the short-term low support is enhanced. It is required to speed up the pace of resumption of work and start-up, and the situation of tight supply may be alleviated in the later stage. Short term or supportive shocks and fluctuations, pay attention to the development of epidemic situation, market sentiment and the change of supply and demand.

Spot: the coke market is temporarily stable, and the quotation of quasi first-class metallurgical coke is: 1,930 RMB/ ton for Rizhao Port, 1,800 RMB/ ton for Shanxi, 1,960 RMB/ ton for Tangshan. For coke enterprises, the resumption of coal mines at the supply end is delayed, fully recovered or after March; due to the shortage of raw materials, coke production is mostly reduced actively, with the proportion of production limit in Shanxi Coking Plant at 30-50%, and production reduction in Hebei, Inner Mongolia and Jiangsu coking plants. In the steel plants, due to the factors such as the poor arrival of raw materials and the unsalable sale of finished products, the production limit and maintenance of the blast furnace continue to increase, and the downstream operation and transportation are still uncertain. The enthusiasm of port traders in mining and marketing has been improved. Coke operates in a short-term or stable manner, focusing on transportation, coal mine resumption and inventory changes in various links.

Strategy analysis: under the current economic pressure, the government strengthened macro-control, increased counter cyclical regulation, loose policies to stabilize the market. The national epidemic prevention and control measures for COVID-19 have significantly inhibited the flow of people, the supply side of coke has contracted significantly, the coke enterprises have more production restrictions and reduced production, and the sharp rise of coking coal has driven the coke to be strengthened. At present, local governments have successively issued relevant policies to support the resumption of production. However, from the current epidemic situation, short-term supply is difficult to fully recover.


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