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SunSirs: Silicomanganese and prices rise after the holiday (Feb. 8th)

February 10 2020 10:52:55     SunSirs (Molly)

1. Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the market price of silicomanganese alloy rose this week, up by about 400-500 yuan/ton from the pre-holiday period. At present, the silicomanganese Ningxia region has a specification of FeMN68Si18 and the ex-factory price is about 6700 yuan/ton.

After the Spring Festival holiday, the keynote of silicomanganese steel has been set, and due to the epidemic, the Spring Festival holiday has been extended, the resumption of construction sites has been delayed, and transportation in various regions has been restricted. Silicomanganese manufacturers have tight raw materials and may be affected. SunSirs analysis believes that the price of manganese silicon may continue to rise slightly.

 

2. Analysis of influencing factors

  • Manganese and silicon steel price in February returns to 7000RMB

Luohe Steel Group's bidding price for silicon-manganese alloy in February was RMB 7,200/ton with tax acceptance, which was RMB 600/ton higher than the price in January, and the purchase amount was 26,000 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from January;

Guangdong Shaogang announced the bidding price of silicon and manganese in February, and accepted 7,350 yuan/ton for the tax-included plant, with a quantity of 9,000 tons.

  • Silicomanganese companies do not have much spot demand

Twenty years ago, environmental protection increased power and reduced electricity, and many companies stopped production and reduced production. They returned after the year and were affected by the epidemic, and the transportation was not smooth. When most factories indicated that coke, manganese ore and other raw materials were insufficient, the market output in the later period may be reduced.

  • Silicomanganese companies have few stocks and increased demand.

Before the holiday, because of environmental protection and capping electricity, many companies stopped production and reduced production. After the holiday, affected by the epidemic, the transportation was not smooth. In the case that most factories indicated that coke, manganese ore and other raw materials were insufficient, the market output would be reduced in the later period.

After a period of consumption, the current major steel mills have stated that there are not many raw materials, and some new rounds of silicon-manganese alloy tendering have started, and the overall inquiry and procurement atmosphere has significantly improved.

  • Manganese ore prices are rising strongly

The manganese ore market has begun to make offers, and they have all been slightly adjusted upwards. The downstream plants have limited stocks a year ago, and the peak period of manganese ore purchases has come. Even some types of minerals have increased significantly due to temporary shortages.

However, due to the impact of the epidemic situation, the current transportation is not smooth. News from the market, the Qinzhou Municipal Government urgently notified that all logistics companies in Qinzhou Port must stop operations from now to February 9, and the resumption of work will be on February 9 as appropriate after approval. It will be severely punished if it is not implemented in accordance with the regulations, so the overall transaction is hindered.

The latest UMK quotation for manganese ore in China in March: Mn36% South African block $4.6/ton, compared with the first round (4.5) ↑ $0.1/ton.

Manganese mines in Tianjin Port reported 42 yuan / tonne, 37.5-38 yuan / tonne semi-carbonate, 38.5-39 yuan/tonne in Gabon block; Qinzhou Port mainstream Australian block reported 43.5-44 yuan/tonne, 42 yuan in semicarbonate/tonne, Gabon block 40-41 yuan/tonne.

  • Steel mills may stop production or reduce production

Relevant personnel revealed that a steel plant in Shandong plans to limit production in February, and a converter and a rolling line will be stopped in early February. The recovery time depends on the situation and it is estimated that the output will be reduced by 70,000 tons. Although steel mills have increased their inquiries and purchases, they are also more enthusiastic about shipping.

 

3. Future Forecast

After the holiday, the keynote of manganese-silicon steel has been set, and due to the epidemic, the Spring Festival holiday has been extended, the resumption of construction sites has been delayed, and transportation in various regions has been restricted. Silicon manganese manufacturers have tight raw materials and may be affected. SunSirs analysis believes that the price of manganese silicon may continue to rise, but the magnitude should not be very large.

 

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