SunSirs: Energy, Coke Market Remained Stable Last Week (February 3-7)

1  Trend Analysis

Price: according to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic coke market was stable last week. At present, the mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Shanghai are 1,980 RMB/ton and 2,050 RMB/ton respectively; in Xuzhou are 1,950 RMB/ton and 2,020 RMB/ton; in Weifang, Shandong are 1,900 RMB/ton and 1,950 RMB/ton. The mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province are 1,800 RMB/ton and 1,850 RMB/ton; the mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Mudanjiang, Heilongjiang Province are 1,840 RMB/ton and 1,900 RMB/ton; in Shenyang, Liaoning Province are 1,870 RMB/ton and 1,930 RMB/ton. The mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Pingdingshan, Henan Province are 1,900 RMB/ton and 2,000 RMB/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of secondary and quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Tangshan, Hebei Province are 1,890 RMB/ton and 1,940 RMB/ton; in Tianjin are 1,900 RMB/ton and 2,000 RMB/ton. The mainstream prices of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market in Sichuan Province, Liupanshui coke market of Guizhou province and Ordos coke market are 2,130 RMB/ton, 2,270 RMB/ton and 1,550 RMB/ton respectively. The price of primary metallurgical coke in port trade is about 2,150 RMB/ton, of quasi-primary is about 2,050 RMB/ton, and of secondary is about 1,950 RMB/ton.

Products: last week, the domestic coke market was in stable operation as a whole. The market was more wait-and-see attitude towards a new round of increase after the Spring Festival. Due to the epidemic of 2019-nCoV and limited transportation, the overall operation of domestic coke enterprises declined, the shipment was not smooth, the inventory was gradually accumulated, and the coke inventory of downstream steel plants was increasingly reduced, but the operation of the domecstic market has not yet recovered, and the steel stock is accumulated. At present, the purchase of coke is just in demand, in terms of ports, the number of inbound traders increase, but the overall trading is still flat.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there were 8 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in January 2020, among which were are 3 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities with an increase were fuel oil (9.87%), methanol (9.12%) and DME (7.17%). There were 7 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling were LNG (-17.45%), Brent crude oil (-5.25%) and WTI crude oil (-5.09%). This month's average rise and fall was -0.77%.

2  Market Forecast

According to the coke analysts of SunSirs, affected by the limited transportation caused by the epidemic of 2019-nCoV, the storage pressure of coke enterprises has increased, the supply of raw materials and coking coal is insufficient, some coke enterprises take the initiative to limit production, the demand of downstream steel plants is flat, the overall supply and demand of the industry is relatively soft, and it is expected to operate stably in the short term. The market will pay attention to the commencement of coke enterprises and steel plants.

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