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SunSirs: Energy, Domestic Fuel Oil 180CST Rose sharply in January

February 05 2020 11:41:12     SunSirs (Selena)

1  Price Data

According to the latest monitoring data of SunSirs, the average price of the main market of 180CST fuel oil in China as of January 31 was 5,030.00 RMB/ ton, up and down 9.87% compared with 4,578.00 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the month.

On January 31, the fuel oil commodity index was 101.87, unchanged from the previous day, down 12.11% from 115.91 (October 17, 2018), the highest point in the cycle, and up 121.07% from 46.08, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2  Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: the price of domestic fuel oil rose sharply this month, with low inventory. The mainstream price at the end of the month was about 5,100 RMB/ ton. On January 31, the spot price of Singapore fuel oil (high sulfur 380cst) was $284.76/ ton, down $9.83/ ton compared with the previous day (converted to 1,972 RMB/ ton at the RMB exchange rate of that day). According to data released by ESG, the stock of residual fuel oil (excluding asphalt) in Singapore increased by 737,000 barrels to 22,355,000 barrels in the week ended January 29, including fuel oil and low sulfur and waxy residual oil; the stock of light distillate oil increased by 84,000 barrels to 13,005,600 barrels; the stock of medium distillate oil increased by 389,000 barrels to 11,212,000 barrels.

Industry chain: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, WTI crude oil in the United States at the beginning of January was $61.68/ barrel, $58.54/ barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase or decrease of -5.09%; Brent crude oil at the beginning of the month was $68.44/ barrel, with a monthly increase or decrease of -5.25% at the end of the month, with a monthly increase or decrease of -5.09%. At the beginning of January, the tense situation in Iran and the rapid rose of international oil price, however, with Trump's comments easing, the international crude oil price fell sharply. In the following two weeks, the long and short factors of the international crude oil market were intertwined, and there was no decisive factor for the time being. The sharp increase in fuel oil in January was mainly due to the tight supply of low sulfur asphalt and residual oil, the sharp increase in price, and the price difference in domestic trade and foreign trade ship fuel market.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there were 8 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices in January 2020, among which were are 3 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities with an increase were fuel oil (9.87%), methanol (9.12%) and DME (7.17%). There were 7 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling were LNG (-17.45%), Brent crude oil (-5.25%) and WTI crude oil (-5.09%). This month's average rise and fall was -0.77%.

3  Market Forecast

Energy analysts of SunSirs believe that logistics is greatly limited due to a series of factors such as Spring Festival. At present, it is expected to recover after February 10. It is expected that the fuel oil market price in February will fall slightly, and the price range may be 4,900-5,100 RMB/ ton.


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