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SunSirs: Chinese Polyester Staple Fiber may Decline

January 09 2020 13:08:05     SunSirs (Linda)

According to the price data monitoring of SunSirs, as of January 8, the average ex factory price of 1.4D * 38mm polyester staple fiber in the domestic market was 7,195RMB/ton, up 4.57% month on month, up 314RMB/ton, down 19.79% year on year, down 1,775RMB/ton. The quoted price of large factories is mainly between 7,100-7,400RMB/ton, and the price is relatively centralized.

US crude oil rose sharply due to tensions in the US and Iran. From the perspective of supply, the United States is in the high-speed growth period of American oil inventory from January to April every year; although OPEC reduces production, Brazil and other countries have a large increase in production. In terms of demand, the global economy is in recession. China is the only major demander of China, the United States and India. In the short term, supply and demand are in a state of weak balance. In the near future, although the list of turmoil in the United States and Iran is that crude oil has not been substantially interrupted, the price of oil has fallen rapidly due to the rapid increase of oil price in the previous days and traders' vigilance against profit taking of high price oil.

PTA closed at 4,875 (- 95) yesterday, with the oil price slightly falling. At present, the spot price of PTA is around 4,984RMB/ton, and the processing fee is about 450RMB/ton, which is at a low level. Ningbo Yisheng's 650,000 ton plant was shut down in January, another 2.2 million ton plant is planned to be shut down and overhauled for half a month in February, chuanneng Petrochemical's 1 million ton plant was shut down on December 29, tentatively to be restarted in late January; Yisheng Dalian's 2.25 million ton plant is expected to be restarted in mid January. PTA inventory accumulation, the current operating rate is 85.34%. Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester production and sales are weak as a whole, with a production and sales rate of 57%. PTA has entered the class library stage. Due to the low processing cost and high oil price, the fall of oil price is likely to drive PTA downward.

The average ex factory price of downstream 32S polyester yarn in Shandong is 14,360RMB/ton, down 0.28% month on month, down 40RMB/ton, basically flat. It fell 12.22% year on year, down as much as 2,000RMB/ton. The quotation of large-scale factories is mainly RMB 13,800-15,000 / ton, and the two-level differentiation is slightly serious. Near the end of the year, the price of yarn grey fabric manufacturers rose steadily, and the bearish psychology was relieved, but it is still difficult to increase the price. One is that most of the enterprises are going to have a holiday for maintenance as they approach the new year; the other is that even though the bullish is divided into strong, the actual transaction is quite difficult. The vast majority of enterprises have gradually stopped receiving orders and trading.

To sum up, analysts believe that there is still great uncertainty in the upstream crude oil due to geopolitical reasons, and the oil price will fall back to the normal state in the short term; PTA is in a cumulative state due to the restart of multiple manufacturers' devices, and the oil price will drive PTA down; the rise of yarn belongs to the favorable factors that manufacturers intend to hold up the price, but do not support the price rise. Polyester staple fiber is expected to decline slightly in the short term, but it is still in a stable state in the long term this month.

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